An olive branch!
In what could be called a breakthrough development, India and China have reportedly reached an agreement on restoring patrolling rights along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which has been a site of heightened military tension since 2020. Incidentally, the agreement has been announced just ahead of the BRICS Summit in which the Indian PM and Chinese Premier will also participate. The agreement has, obviously, opened the channels of de-escalation at key friction points, particularly in the Demchok and Depsang areas. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, while making the announcement during a briefing on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Russia for the BRICS summit, described it as a resolution of issues that had arisen since 2020.
It needs no recall that the 2020 standoff marked a dismally low point in India-China relations, with the deadly clash in the Galwan Valley resulting in the loss of 20 Indian soldiers. This physical confrontation was the first such incident in decades. It escalated tensions and led to the freezing of traditional patrolling routes along the LAC. Both nations responded by amassing troops and military hardware, which further complicated an already tenuous situation.
It can be safely said that India and China are the two most striking nations in the Asian continent. The believers of the ‘Asian Century’ advocate for cordial relations between the two giant nations. The centre of geopolitical power, which has for centuries been consolidated in the Western world, is now speculated to shift towards the Southeast. A close coordination between India and China is being seen as a necessary ingredient for this geopolitical shift. But more importantly, the bonhomie between the two nations is important to ward off any possible escalation in the region—like the ones being experienced in West Asia and Russia-Ukraine region. All the stakeholders of the conflict, irrespective of their military might and prowess, are thrown into a disadvantageous position, from where they will have to strive hard to bounce back.
Fortunately, the news of successful disengagement along the Line of Actual Control has come as a welcome respite for India and China. With the new agreement, there is renewed hope for the de-escalation of this prolonged conflict. As External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar confirmed, the agreement allows for the resumption of patrolling along previously established routes, a confidence-building measure that signals a return to pre-2020 norms. While the exact details of the agreement remain undisclosed, the commitment to disengage and reduce tensions is clearly evident. The timing of this agreement is particularly significant. The possibility of a meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit adds to the importance of the agreement. The two leaders may have the opportunity to further solidify this progress through high-level dialogue. This is very crucial, for the level of engagement between the two nations—from trade to diaspora—is quite in-depth.
From a strategic perspective, the agreement offers benefits for both India and China. For India, a stable LAC allows for better management of its border infrastructure and the development of critical roads and airstrips without the constant threat of conflict. The Depsang Plains, in particular, hold strategic importance for India due to their proximity to the Daulat Beg Oldie airstrip and the vital Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road. For China, this agreement could reflect a broader strategic calculation amid its global tensions. Stabilising the border with India allows Beijing to focus on other pressing international challenges, including its relations with the United States and internal economic pressures. The resumption of patrolling and disengagement also sends a message that China is willing to engage diplomatically to resolve disputes rather than resorting to military escalation.
However, challenges remain. The path ahead involves not just disengagement but also demobilisation—a process that will require both sides to thin their troop presence along the LAC and rebuild trust. Confidence-building measures, such as regular meetings between military commanders, will be crucial in maintaining peace and preventing future conflicts. Moreover, the successful implementation of the current agreement could serve as a model for resolving other disputes, including those in the eastern sectors of the border, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh.
