Alarming resurgence

It's still not over. The exploding Covid situation in China has rung an alarm bell, globally. Three years back, it was China that served as a launching pad for one of the deadliest pandemics the world has ever witnessed. Now, as many parts of the world thought that the pandemic's "end is in sight", China, again, has emerged as a cause of concern. Countries, including India, are stepping up the vigil, and rightly so. Governments across the world need to keep a very close eye on the fast-deteriorating situation in China. The most crucial question at this juncture is whether the evolving threat in China is a local phenomenon or it could have global ramifications. Whatever the case, the world should be prepared to deal with the worst-case scenario. So, in the first place, how bad is the situation in China? Weeks back, China's public health officials had estimated that, possibly, 800 million people could be infected with the coronavirus over the next few months. This estimate is contradicted by some experts who believe the entire population of China might be at risk, and that too at a faster pace than ever. The R-value, or the average number of people a sick person can infect, has climbed exponentially to 16, which is way higher than normal. NPR has reported that the doubling time could come down to hours, which is an alarming sign. More worryingly, mortality too is expected to see a major uptick. Although the dominant strain in circulation in China — BF.7 of the omicron variant — is identical to the ones found in the United States, China is finding it hard to contain. The main reason being cited for the rampant rise in the cases is the failure of China's zero-Covid policy or at least a side-effect of the same. By completely insulating people from coronavirus at the strictest possible level over the past three years, through quarantine and all, the Chinese ruling dispensation has deprived them of the natural immunity that one acquires through prior infection. Natural immunity is considered by many as the strongest shield against Covid-19. Apart from the mostly lacking natural immunity, Chinese vaccines are also blamed for being "not as efficacious" as certain others that have been in use globally. Thanks to its vaccine nationalism, China largely abstained from importing vaccines from Western nations. Another possible reason behind low immunity among Chinese people could be the reported widespread vaccine hesitancy prevailing in the country. Well, these are merely popular conjectures. The possibility of newer, more virulent strains being in circulation cannot be brushed aside completely. This brings us to yet another epidemic China is plagued with — misinformation. The perception that the information system in China is highly centralized and opaque, apart from being propaganda-driven, has elements of truth in it. Dissemination of authentic information is vital to the containment of the pandemic, both in China and globally. There is a growing need to impartially filter misinformation through whatever channels possible. A lot remains in the realm of uncertainty. This is a reason for the world to be more than cautious. Experts at the highest level have been speculating about an end to the pandemic. The China episode is a reminder that their speculation might have come a bit earlier. Earlier, WHO Chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus had expressed hope that the health emergency could end in the next year. There were also hints that the United Nations could remove the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) designation for COVID in near future. This is a contested standpoint. There is a need to allow more time for the pandemic to subside naturally. Governments, international agencies and people at large should not become impatient with the pandemic. At stake, we know, is a large number of human lives. At the same time, on an immediate basis, there is a need to be observant of what's unfolding in China currently. China must be open to seeking help, and other countries should unconditionally offer the same if needed.