A vibrant reflection
The 2024 General Elections were generous in the sense that they had something in the store for everyone. While the BJP-led NDA sees the result as a “historic” feat, placing it comfortably for the third time, the opposition bloc INDIA has also created feeble chances of government formation for itself. Most importantly, it is the formidable nature of the Indian democracy that has come out in vibrant colours — keeping both the INDIA and NDA on their toes. The results, which are a manifestation of popular choice and voter sentiment, have set aside the exit poll predictions with sheer contempt, broken the NDA’s arrogant ambition of crossing the 400-mark, and rewarded the opposition bloc with a hope commensurate with its sincere fight and hard work. A democracy, as is well-known, thrives on a decisive government as well as competitive opposition.
Initially ridiculed for its unsustainable and patchy frameworks for coalition, that too against the growing might of the NDA, the INDIA bloc has come out more strongly than most had anticipated. The opposition’s formidable performance in the Lok Sabha polls is, certainly, not a matter of coincidence. It is rather an outcome of relentless raising of people’s concerns despite braving the onslaught of a dominant proposition’s political tactics — ethical or otherwise, democratic or otherwise, and legal or otherwise. From probe agencies to police and whatnot, an entire machinery stood in its way. At the centre of the INDIA stands the INC, which has increased its tally considerably from the 52 seats it won in 2019. Its strike rate against the BJP in head-to-head contest is reported to have increased from 8.3 per cent in 2019 to 29 per cent in 2024, as per latest estimates. The BJP, on the contrary, has seen its seats decline from 303 in 2019 to around 240 in 2024. Its strike rate against the INC has also decreased from 68.7 per cent in 2019 to 62.8 per cent in 2024, at the time of writing this editorial.
Taking the comparison a bit further, the face of the BJP, Narendra Modi, has won the Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency with a margin of over 1.5 lakh votes, while Rahul Gandhi of the INC has won both his seats with much higher margins. He has won Wayanad and Rae Bareli with the margins of above 3.6 lakh and 3.9 lakh, respectively. This provides us a glimpse into the causes of INC’s resurgence in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The compassionate mass connection that Rahul Gandhi cultivated during his two yatras across the length and the breadth of the country was perhaps one of the several factors that led Congress’ performance. This reflects a wonderful essence of Indian democracy — an essence that kept playing its part under the surface but evaded the consciousness of political commentators and exit poll strategists alike. It may also be noted that the INC has garnered a large chunk of its votes from the rural parts of the country, as against metropolitans.
On the other side, it may not be an exaggeration to state that the BJP has underperformed in these much-awaited, high-stake elections, especially when gauged against its own ambitious target of crossing the 370 mark, taking the NDA beyond the much-hyped 400-mark. The loss of simple majority for the BJP appears far more pinching when seen against the fact that NDA left no stone unturned to dub ‘Modi’ as the biggest issue of the 2024 General Elections. The Modi factor must have played its part, but not as effectively as the NDA wanted. Another major issue for the BJP was the inauguration of Ram Temple in Ayodhya. Though it might have played a rippling positive effect on voter’s sentiments across northern India, the BJP lost to the Samajwadi Party in Faizabad constituency itself — home to the temple. The message from the electorate is loud and clear: there is a limit to the politics of religious appeal and polarisation.
And here comes the biggest twist of the 2024 General Elections: the Samajwadi Party of INDI Alliance emerged as the dark horse, beating the BJP badly in its strong turf — Uttar Pradesh. One of the prime examples of double-engine sarkar, the state was BJP’s biggest bet. The party was banking on it to take the NDA beyond 400. By stopping the BJP juggernaut from even crossing the halfway mark, the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP broke the back of BJP’s high ambitions. Maharashtra, too, has largely gone in the favour of INDIA — reflecting voters’ disapproval of undemocratic political maneuverings that bifurcated two of the state’s well-established parties. A setback to the BJP in West Bengal was almost assured. Under the strong leadership of Mamata Banerjee, the TMC has recovered whatever grounds it had lost in 2019.
At present, the NDA appears well-placed to form the next government. But this time around, it is the impressive performances of its regional allies — particularly the JDU in Bihar and the TDP in Andhra Pradesh — that have emerged as the saviour. As the opposition bloc might be aiming to court Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu’s support, the NDA can’t sit complacent. More drama is to unfold in the coming days. Voters must be thanked for their verdict as the process of government formation kickstarts.
