A long-lasting confrontation?
The diplomatic relations between India and Canada have touched the nadir in the true sense of the term. Canada’s reported expulsion of six Indian diplomats, followed by India’s retaliatory expulsion of six high-ranking Canadian diplomats, has led to a significant deterioration in relations between the two Commonwealth nations. What started as a political dispute over the killing of Nijjar in 2023 has now transformed into a full-fledged diplomatic crisis—one that could have long-lasting implications.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has alleged that Indian agents were involved in Nijjar’s murder. Nijjar, a prominent voice advocating for the Khalistan movement—a separatist campaign seeking an independent Sikh homeland—was gunned down outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, British Columbia, in June 2023. Canada, home to a large Sikh population, has been a hotbed for pro-Khalistan activism, much to the chagrin of India, which rightly views the movement as a threat to its territorial integrity. Of course, Trudeau’s claims are not to be taken lightly. At a press conference, he announced that his government had ‘clear and compelling evidence’ linking Indian agents to a broader effort to target dissidents on Canadian soil. He even went so far as to accuse India of using organised crime groups like the Bishnoi gang to carry out these covert activities, citing intelligence gathered by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP).
India, however, has been staunch and firm in its denial, calling the allegations to be ‘preposterous’ and ‘politically motivated’. It sees the Trudeau government’s accusations as an attempt to curry favour with Canada’s influential Sikh community, which forms a key part of Trudeau's voter base. India has also expressed concerns about the safety of its diplomats in Canada. Meanwhile, Trudeau’s government, facing political pressure from opposition parties and the Sikh community, has taken an aggressive stance, calling for investigations and expelling Indian diplomats. India views the accusations as a violation of its sovereignty and sees Canada’s permissiveness toward pro-Khalistan elements as a direct affront to its security interests.
Everything said and done, the deep fissures in the India-Canada relationship, fuelled by years of simmering tensions over the Khalistan issue, have now assumed threatening proportions. India has long complained that Canada has not done enough to curb pro-Khalistan activities including protests and campaigns deemed inflammatory by New Delhi. Canada, meanwhile, has defended these activities under the banner of free speech and peaceful assembly.
Amid the escalating tensions, the prospects for a quick resolution seem bleak. The expulsion of diplomats, the suspension of visa services, and the withdrawal of Canada’s trade negotiations with India all point to a widening rift that will be difficult to bridge in the near future. For India, the stakes are high. Its global standing as an emerging superpower hinges not only on its economic and military prowess but also on its ability to sort out complex international relationships. Allegations of extrajudicial killings on foreign soil could tarnish its image and derail its diplomatic momentum. For Canada, the challenge lies in balancing its domestic political pressures with its international obligations.
In the meantime, the Sikh diaspora in Canada and elsewhere remains caught in the crossfire of this escalating row. With tensions at an all-time high, there is a real danger that communities could be further polarised, leading to more protests and potential unrest. Both nations need to step back and seek dialogue rather than confrontation. Without a willingness to engage diplomatically, the fallout from this crisis could have lasting repercussions for years to come, not just for India and Canada, but for larger global geopolitics. The road to normalcy, as and when it comes, will be long and arduous. In this time of crisis, India needs to stand united across the political spectrum, domestically.
