A giant initiative

The Indian aviation sector touched a milestone on February 14 as one of its privately-owned airlines — Air India — placed one of the largest orders in commercial aviation history. Air India’s Chief Commercial and Transformation Officer is reported to have informed that the order includes 70 wide-bodied or twin-aisle jets and 400 narrow-bodied aircraft. The ordered aircraft are expected to arrive over the coming decades. Apart from having a far-reaching impact on India’s fast-evolving aviation sector, the order can have a larger influence on global markets and geopolitics as well. The significance of the development can be gauged from the fact that the heads of state of prominent global superpowers — including Joe Biden, Rishi Sunak and Emanuel Macron — personally reached out to the Indian PM to register their remarks. So, is it the case that the Indian government, by privatising Air India, has not just removed the albatross from around its neck but also gained leverage of sorts in the global aviation market? The opportunities ahead are indeed promising but it might be too early to be assured of those. Challenges abound on the path to turning this initiative into a true game-changer. Notably, the Air India order from Airbus and Boeing may open the floodgates for other airlines to follow suit. Indigo, for instance, is already known to have ordered 500 aircraft. There are speculations that Air India itself can order an additional 370 aircraft — taking the total number to 840. In fact, the Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation (CAPA) has estimated that Indian carriers could place orders to the tune of around 1,500-1,700 aircraft over the next two years. At the base of these orders lies India's booming aviation sector. India, which is the third-largest domestic aviation market, will likely become the third-largest air passenger market by 2024, as per International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates. An IATA document had projected way back in 2017 that India’s transport market would grow by 262 per cent by 2037. India’s domestic market particularly looks promising. Not just India’s population is growing by leaps and bounds but also its growth projections remain intact. On top of it, air travel is yet to get normalised among the vast middle-class population of the country. The country’s leadership has time and again reiterated the need to take a large section of the Indian population onboard. To state the obvious, India, as a fast-emerging aviation market, has evidently come under the notice of major aviation players, particularly as China is undergoing operational fatigue of sorts in this sector. Apart from the aviation sector, the massive order by Air India — even if the airline is not a part of the Indian government anymore — has earned the nation some sort of soft power globally while it also adds up to the revenues on a tangible basis. It goes without saying that this initiative by Air India is fraught with multiple challenges, addressing which will be the key to the successful and hassle-free materialisation of the purchase. Even if one were to completely trust the management of the airline to efficiently handle the potential debt- and cash flow-related concerns, the operational hurdles remain evidently clear. In the first place, the purchase order doesn’t seem to take into account the broader problem of pilot and crew shortage in India’s aviation sector. When the aircraft — several of them new to India’s aviation market — arrive, there has to be a clear roadmap regarding the recruitment and training of pilots and crew to suit the purpose. As per data by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), in 2021-2022, India had close to 8,573 pilots to run around 700 aircraft. The present order entails a need to train and recruit around 8,000 additional pilots. Add to it the purchase orders of other airlines, and the challenge on this front suddenly appears to be profound. Furthermore, the poor standards of flying training organisations (FTOs) in India, and the subsequent foreign dependence on training purposes, won’t help the cause much. Air India has taken a positive and big step forward. It must be complemented with the streamlining of a proper institutional framework for the sector — if the initiative were to be allowed to taste some real success!