Q3 GDP growth surges to 8.4%, FY24 forecast revised to 7.6%

India’s economic growth accelerated to 8.4 per cent in the third quarter (October-December) of the current fiscal year, driven primarily by strong performance in the manufacturing, mining & quarrying and construction sectors. It marks a significant improvement in GDP (gross domestic product) growth compared to the 4.3% recorded in the same quarter last year.

According to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Thursday, the manufacturing sector witnessed a robust 11.6 per cent growth, reversing the previous year’s contraction of 4.8 per cent. This significant rise suggests a revitalization of this crucial sector.

Mining and quarrying grew at 7.5 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.4 per cent a year ago. The construction sector kept the growth momentum at 9.5 per cent against the same growth rate in the year-ago period.

However, the output of the farm sector declined by 0.8 per cent during the quarter compared to a growth of 5.2 per cent a year ago.

The national accounts data showed the electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment has grown by 9 per cent year-on-year against an 8.7 per cent rise.

The GVA growth in the services sector — trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting — was 6.7 per cent during the third quarter against 9.2 per cent. Financial, real estate and professional services grew by 7 per cent in the third quarter over 7.7 per cent earlier.

Public administration, defence and other services posted 7.5 per cent growth against 3.5 per cent in the third quarter of the last fiscal.

The NSO also released the second advance estimate for the current fiscal and pegged the economic growth at 7.6 per cent against 7.3 per cent estimated in the first advance estimate released in January.

“Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 172.90 lakh crore, against the first revised estimates of GDP for the year 2022-23 of Rs 160.71 lakh crore. The growth rate of GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.6 per cent compared to the growth rate of 7.0 per cent in 2022-23,” the NSO statement said.

According to the statement, the nominal GDP or GDP at current prices in 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 293.90 lakh crore against Rs 269.50 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 9.1 per cent.

It stated that the GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 43.72 lakh crore against Rs 40.35 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.4 per cent.

The GDP at current prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 75.49 lakh crore compared to Rs 68.58 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 10.1 per cent, it stated.

The NSO revised downward the GDP growth for 2022-23 to 7 per cent from 7.2 per cent estimated earlier.

“Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2022-23 and 2021-22 stands at Rs 160.71 lakh crore and Rs 150.22 lakh crore, respectively, showing a growth of 7.0 per cent during 2022-23 as compared to growth of 9.7 per cent during 2021-22,” it stated.

The per capita income i.e. per capita net national income at current prices is estimated at Rs 1,50,906 and Rs 1,69,496, respectively, for 2021-22 and 2022-23. Per capita PFCE at current prices, for 2021-22 and 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 1,05,092 and Rs 1,18,755, respectively, it stated.

The NSO has also revised GDP estimates for the first and second quarters of this fiscal to 8.2 and 8.1 per cent from 7.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively.

The economy has expanded 8.2 per cent in April-December 2023 compared to 7.3 per cent a year ago.