Delhi votes today as X-factor looms large
4 Dec 2013 6:02 AM IST
However, this is not the first time that a third party is giving the main contenders a run for their money. As the 20-year-old legislative history of the national capital shows, there was a bi-party contest between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 1998 and 2003 and there was a prominent third angle to the contest in 1993 and 2008.
In 1993, it was the Janata Dal, which managed to get 12 percent votes and four seats, in 2008 it was Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with 14 percent votes and two seats. In 1993, the independents (read party rebels) too grabbed three seats garnering six percent of the votes polled.
The contest of Wednesday looks evenly poised between the Congress and the BJP and tilt of balance would be decided on how effective is the presence of more than one X-factor parties – the AAP, the BSP and too an extent the JD-U. When BJP leader Arun Jaitley claims that the presence of AAP on the ground is not commensurate with their presence in media, he is not far from the truth. The media on the other hand, has been absolutely step-motherly in projection of BSP, which got as much 14% votes in 2008 and could still perform handsomely in Wednesday’s poll.
BSP cuts into the traditional Congress vote banks and it was to the credit of the ruling party that in 2008 it managed to gain 40% votes despite the surge in BSP’s poll percentage. Congress was able to cut the damage by BSP ensuring a large turnout of its voters, with total polling percentage rising from 53% to 57.5% in 2008. This time around BSP is again contesting prominently on several seats and how damaging they would be to the Congress fortunes, with party boss Mayawati now out of power, remains to be seen.
BJP failed to encash the presence of BSP in 2008 as its vote percentage increased merely from 35% to 36%, meaning the anti-incumbency Congress votes were drawn to BSP. This time around the same fears are being expressed that the anti-incumbency votes may get transferred to the AAP. The BJP leaders have made no bones about it as from Lal Krishna Advani to Narendra Modi, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, and Nitin Gadkari has labelled AAP as B team of the Congress.
The Congress is facing anti-incumbency both at the state and the central levels. The BJP has run its campaign very well and in Harshvardhan it has been able to field a credible face to take on formidable aura of chief minister Sheila Dikshit. The BJP cadres look energized and challenge of getting them out to vote, as it happened in 1993 doesn’t look unlikely. However, unlike 1993, when the Muslims, which have substantial presence on 27 of the 70 seats, voted en bloc against Congress, this time around they look like polarizing in support of the ruling party.
The bigger challenge is of the number of votes which AAP would be able to garner. They have a fair presence on 11 seats including three seats where they are formidable. Given the voting trends in other states, the poll percentage should increase in Delhi too. But the question is which way the increased votes would go. If about four to five percent goes to AAP, the contest could still remain tilted in favour of the BJP, however, the closer it gets to the double digit figures, it going to be alarm bells for the saffron party. The Congress is banking on the ability of its veteran MLAs to manfully defend their individual fortresses.
In 1993, it was the Janata Dal, which managed to get 12 percent votes and four seats, in 2008 it was Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with 14 percent votes and two seats. In 1993, the independents (read party rebels) too grabbed three seats garnering six percent of the votes polled.
The contest of Wednesday looks evenly poised between the Congress and the BJP and tilt of balance would be decided on how effective is the presence of more than one X-factor parties – the AAP, the BSP and too an extent the JD-U. When BJP leader Arun Jaitley claims that the presence of AAP on the ground is not commensurate with their presence in media, he is not far from the truth. The media on the other hand, has been absolutely step-motherly in projection of BSP, which got as much 14% votes in 2008 and could still perform handsomely in Wednesday’s poll.
BSP cuts into the traditional Congress vote banks and it was to the credit of the ruling party that in 2008 it managed to gain 40% votes despite the surge in BSP’s poll percentage. Congress was able to cut the damage by BSP ensuring a large turnout of its voters, with total polling percentage rising from 53% to 57.5% in 2008. This time around BSP is again contesting prominently on several seats and how damaging they would be to the Congress fortunes, with party boss Mayawati now out of power, remains to be seen.
BJP failed to encash the presence of BSP in 2008 as its vote percentage increased merely from 35% to 36%, meaning the anti-incumbency Congress votes were drawn to BSP. This time around the same fears are being expressed that the anti-incumbency votes may get transferred to the AAP. The BJP leaders have made no bones about it as from Lal Krishna Advani to Narendra Modi, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, and Nitin Gadkari has labelled AAP as B team of the Congress.
The Congress is facing anti-incumbency both at the state and the central levels. The BJP has run its campaign very well and in Harshvardhan it has been able to field a credible face to take on formidable aura of chief minister Sheila Dikshit. The BJP cadres look energized and challenge of getting them out to vote, as it happened in 1993 doesn’t look unlikely. However, unlike 1993, when the Muslims, which have substantial presence on 27 of the 70 seats, voted en bloc against Congress, this time around they look like polarizing in support of the ruling party.
The bigger challenge is of the number of votes which AAP would be able to garner. They have a fair presence on 11 seats including three seats where they are formidable. Given the voting trends in other states, the poll percentage should increase in Delhi too. But the question is which way the increased votes would go. If about four to five percent goes to AAP, the contest could still remain tilted in favour of the BJP, however, the closer it gets to the double digit figures, it going to be alarm bells for the saffron party. The Congress is banking on the ability of its veteran MLAs to manfully defend their individual fortresses.
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