Dalit power: Parties cross swords for slice
31 Jan 2015 4:42 AM IST
In the February 2015, Dalits are once again in demand with all the major parties vying for their support. The BJP apparently missed the bus by a few seats due to unfavourable voting from the backward community in the last election. With virtually no known Dalit face, the saffron party parachuted former Congress leader Krishna Tirath into its fold.
Internal post-poll analysis by all the major political parties have revealed that Dalit voters are again set to play a crucial role in the upcoming February 7 assembly polls in which the AAP and BJP are locked in a neck and neck fight. Any marginal swing of votes may turn the tables either side.
Arvind Kejriwal had defeated Sheila Dikshit with a record margin of 25,000 votes in December 2013 apparently with overwhelming support from slum clusters dominated by Dalits. Failing to win confidence of the Dalit voters over the years, this time the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to get their support to propel the ‘Modi wave’ further. The fact is that the saffron party is desperate to come to power in the Capital after 16 years but with the ground realties like rift within the leaders and issue of ‘parachute leaders’ and ‘old timers vs new leaders’ may give a heavy dent to the dreams of the BJP when results are announced on February 10.
On the other hand Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) effective ‘connect’ with the Dalits as well as with the rural masses and sudden awakening of Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi, who took the street for campaigning is going to make an interesting post-poll arithmetic. There are 12 reserved constituencies (SC) in Delhi and in the 2013 polls the AAP had won nine seats - Mangolpuri, Karol Bagh, Madipur, Deoli, Ambedkar Nagar, Trilokpuri, Kondli and Seemapuri, while the BJP managed to secure only two seats - Bawana and Gokalpur. The Congress was the worst sufferer by retaining only one reserved seat - Sultan Majra.
Even though the Dalits comprise a total of 16 per cent of the electorates in Delhi, there are as many as 17 assembly segments, including the 12 reserved seats where their vote-share is over 20 per cent and they are in a position to determine who will form the next government in Delhi.
In Mundka, there are more than 53 per cent Dalits. Following is the list of Dalit vote percentage in Delhi seats - Sultanpur-Majra (42.6%), Gokalpur (SC-37.9 %), Karol Bagh (SC-35.3%), Mongolpuri (SC-32.7%), Trilokpuri (SC-31%), Ambedkar Nagar (SC-30.4%), Seemapuri (SC-28.7%), Deoli (SC-26.8%), Madipur (SC-25.7%), Kondli (SC-24.8%), Bawana (SC-23.1%), Patel Nagar (SC-21.4%), Wazirpur (20.9 %), Ballimaran (20.6%), Tughlaqabad (20.5%) and Narela (20.4%).
Besides, the Dalit factor, a shift of voters living in unauthorised colonies is also likely to impact the poll outcome. BJP has never won five reserved constituencies since the formation of Delhi Assembly and they are - Mangolpuri, Sultanpur Majra, Ambedkar Nagar, Deoli and Kondli. This time they are desperate to increase Dalit seats.
So far, the BJP has won the Karol Bagh (SC) seat thrice and has captured Bawana Assembly segment twice. In the 2008 the BJP had only won the Karol Bagh seat, which it lost to the AAP in the 2013 elections. This time due to lack of prominent Dalit faces — except North Delhi Mayor Yogendra Chandolia who is contesting from Karol Bagh - party leaders including Amit Shah seems to be worried.
Various surveys have revealed that AAP might get an edge in getting sizable Dalit votes, which will force the BJP and Congress to reorganise their party strategies on the 12 reserved seats.
The year that was
Bawana (SC): Gugan Singh-BJP, 68,407 votes & defeated AAP’s Manoj who got 42,768
Sultanpur Majra (SC): Jai Kishan-INC, 31,458 votes & defeated AAP’s Sandeep Kumar who got 30,346
Mangolpuri (SC): Rakhi Bidlan-AAP, 44,383 votes & defeated INC’s Raj Kumar Chauhan who got 33,798
Karol Bagh (SC): Vishesh Ravi-AAP, 35,818 votes & defeated BJP’s Surendra Pal Ratawal who got 34,068
Patel Nagar (SC): Veena Anand-AAP, 38,899 votes & defeated BJP’s Poornima Vidyarthi who got 32,637
Madipur (SC): Girish Soni-AAP, 36,393 votes & defeated BJP’s Kailash Sankla who got 35,290
Deoli (SC): Prakash-AAP, 51,646 votes & defeated BJP’s Gagan Rana who got 34,538
Ambedkar Nagar (SC): Ashok Kumar-AAP, 36,239 votes & defeated BJP’s Khushi Ram Chunar who got 24,569
Trilokpuri (SC): Raju-AAP, 44,082 votes & defeated BJP’s Sunil Kumar who got 26,397
Kondli (SC): Manoj Kumar-AAP, 36,863 votes & defeated BJP’s Dushyant Kumar Gautam who got 29,373.
Seemapuri (SC): Dharmender Singh-AAP, 43,199 votes & defeated INC’s Veer Singh Dhingan who got 31,223)
Gokalpur (SC): Ranjeet Singh-BJP, 34,888 votes & defeated IND’s Surendra Kumar who got 32,966
Internal post-poll analysis by all the major political parties have revealed that Dalit voters are again set to play a crucial role in the upcoming February 7 assembly polls in which the AAP and BJP are locked in a neck and neck fight. Any marginal swing of votes may turn the tables either side.
Arvind Kejriwal had defeated Sheila Dikshit with a record margin of 25,000 votes in December 2013 apparently with overwhelming support from slum clusters dominated by Dalits. Failing to win confidence of the Dalit voters over the years, this time the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to get their support to propel the ‘Modi wave’ further. The fact is that the saffron party is desperate to come to power in the Capital after 16 years but with the ground realties like rift within the leaders and issue of ‘parachute leaders’ and ‘old timers vs new leaders’ may give a heavy dent to the dreams of the BJP when results are announced on February 10.
On the other hand Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) effective ‘connect’ with the Dalits as well as with the rural masses and sudden awakening of Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi, who took the street for campaigning is going to make an interesting post-poll arithmetic. There are 12 reserved constituencies (SC) in Delhi and in the 2013 polls the AAP had won nine seats - Mangolpuri, Karol Bagh, Madipur, Deoli, Ambedkar Nagar, Trilokpuri, Kondli and Seemapuri, while the BJP managed to secure only two seats - Bawana and Gokalpur. The Congress was the worst sufferer by retaining only one reserved seat - Sultan Majra.
Even though the Dalits comprise a total of 16 per cent of the electorates in Delhi, there are as many as 17 assembly segments, including the 12 reserved seats where their vote-share is over 20 per cent and they are in a position to determine who will form the next government in Delhi.
In Mundka, there are more than 53 per cent Dalits. Following is the list of Dalit vote percentage in Delhi seats - Sultanpur-Majra (42.6%), Gokalpur (SC-37.9 %), Karol Bagh (SC-35.3%), Mongolpuri (SC-32.7%), Trilokpuri (SC-31%), Ambedkar Nagar (SC-30.4%), Seemapuri (SC-28.7%), Deoli (SC-26.8%), Madipur (SC-25.7%), Kondli (SC-24.8%), Bawana (SC-23.1%), Patel Nagar (SC-21.4%), Wazirpur (20.9 %), Ballimaran (20.6%), Tughlaqabad (20.5%) and Narela (20.4%).
Besides, the Dalit factor, a shift of voters living in unauthorised colonies is also likely to impact the poll outcome. BJP has never won five reserved constituencies since the formation of Delhi Assembly and they are - Mangolpuri, Sultanpur Majra, Ambedkar Nagar, Deoli and Kondli. This time they are desperate to increase Dalit seats.
So far, the BJP has won the Karol Bagh (SC) seat thrice and has captured Bawana Assembly segment twice. In the 2008 the BJP had only won the Karol Bagh seat, which it lost to the AAP in the 2013 elections. This time due to lack of prominent Dalit faces — except North Delhi Mayor Yogendra Chandolia who is contesting from Karol Bagh - party leaders including Amit Shah seems to be worried.
Various surveys have revealed that AAP might get an edge in getting sizable Dalit votes, which will force the BJP and Congress to reorganise their party strategies on the 12 reserved seats.
The year that was
Bawana (SC): Gugan Singh-BJP, 68,407 votes & defeated AAP’s Manoj who got 42,768
Sultanpur Majra (SC): Jai Kishan-INC, 31,458 votes & defeated AAP’s Sandeep Kumar who got 30,346
Mangolpuri (SC): Rakhi Bidlan-AAP, 44,383 votes & defeated INC’s Raj Kumar Chauhan who got 33,798
Karol Bagh (SC): Vishesh Ravi-AAP, 35,818 votes & defeated BJP’s Surendra Pal Ratawal who got 34,068
Patel Nagar (SC): Veena Anand-AAP, 38,899 votes & defeated BJP’s Poornima Vidyarthi who got 32,637
Madipur (SC): Girish Soni-AAP, 36,393 votes & defeated BJP’s Kailash Sankla who got 35,290
Deoli (SC): Prakash-AAP, 51,646 votes & defeated BJP’s Gagan Rana who got 34,538
Ambedkar Nagar (SC): Ashok Kumar-AAP, 36,239 votes & defeated BJP’s Khushi Ram Chunar who got 24,569
Trilokpuri (SC): Raju-AAP, 44,082 votes & defeated BJP’s Sunil Kumar who got 26,397
Kondli (SC): Manoj Kumar-AAP, 36,863 votes & defeated BJP’s Dushyant Kumar Gautam who got 29,373.
Seemapuri (SC): Dharmender Singh-AAP, 43,199 votes & defeated INC’s Veer Singh Dhingan who got 31,223)
Gokalpur (SC): Ranjeet Singh-BJP, 34,888 votes & defeated IND’s Surendra Kumar who got 32,966
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