Chanakya roots for NDA, rest give Alliance the edge
6 Nov 2015 5:41 AM IST
If the past credentials of poll predictor Today’s Chanakya are anything to go by, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to sweep Bihar assembly polls.
While three of the nine surveys at the end of five rounds of polling predicted a clear win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and another gave it an upper hand, five exit polls forecast a narrow or clear majority in the 243-member house to the Grand Alliance.
Though most exit polls predict a photo-finish fight between Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance and NDA in the crucial assembly elections, but Today’s Chanakya, which has been spot on with their forecasts a few times in the recent past, has predicted an NDA government in Bihar.
An India Today-Cicero exit poll predicted a hung assembly, with the BJP-led alliance winning 120 seats to 117 by the Grand Alliance. It gave the BJP alliance 113-127 seats and the Grand Alliance 111-123 seats. Four to eight seats could go to other parties.
A Dainik Jagran exit poll said the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would get a majority with 130 seats as compared to 97 for the Grand Alliance. The Times Now-CVoter survey gave 122 seats to the Grand Alliance and 111 to the NDA.
ABP News gave the BJP and its allies 130 seats compared to 108 to the JD-U-RJD-Congress alliance. News Nation also gave the JD-U and its allies an edge, with 120-124 seats, while the BJP and its allies could get 115-119 seats. India TV-C Voter also predicted 111 seats to the BJP combine and 122 to the Grand Alliance.
Today’s Chanakya stuck its neck out and predicted a win for NDA on 155 of the 243 seats, with the grand alliance getting just 85 seats. Chanakya had predicted that NDA would get more than 300 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha poll, which came true.
Excited over Chanakya’s predictions, BJP president Amit Shah has said that he would go by their exit poll results only. However, the Mahagadbandhan has rejected the forecast of Chanakya and relied on calculations of AC Nielsen, which has given 130 seats to the JD(U)-led alliance, with 108 seats for NDA. In his inimitable style former Chief Minister Lalu Prasad, however, insisted that the Grand Alliance, which also includes the Congress, was poised to win 190 seats.
“The entire backward community of Bihar has voted for us,” he told the media in Patna. “We salute them for this.” Predictably both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and arch-rival Nitish preferred to maintain a studied silence.
According to Chankaya’s finding the Muslim, Yadav and Kurmi voters have expectedly gone with the grand alliance with 85 per cent Muslims, 66 per cent Yadavs and 71 per cent Kurmis voting in their favour. BJP’s gamble with Jitan Ram Manjhi seems to have paid off with the forecaster claiming that 51 per cent of the Scheduled Caste vote would go the NDA way, while the Grand Alliance would net only 36 per cent of this crucial vote-bank.
According to findings of the survey, the NDA also managed to retain its vote bank as it has got 66 per cent of the Brahmin-Vaisya vote share, 61 per cent of the Bhumihar vote bank, 69 per cent of the Rajput vote and had eaten into 49 per cent of the Alliance’s Kuswaha vote bank. Also in a major gain for the BJP, the party bagged 50 per cent of the lesser OBC vote, while its arch rival grand alliance got just 33 per cent.
“The rise in polling percentage particularly of women voters must have played a decisive role as there was a strong inclination of women voters towards Modi and not towards BJP. Also on seats where there was a RJD candidate, women voters have shifted from JD(U) alliance to Modi.”
“The shifting pattern was seen both in rural and urban areas across the state,” Today’s Chanakya said in its official release.
Earlier on Thursday, nearly 60 per cent of the 1.55 crore electorate turned out to vote in the last of the 57 constituencies spread across seven districts: Kishangaj, Purnea, Araria, Katihar, Saharasa, Madhepura and Supaul.
Despite widespread apprehensions, the staggered election passed off peacefully, even in areas considered to be strongholds of Maoists who had called for an election boycott.
The voter enthusiasm was evident on Thursday too, with tens of thousands queuing up at polling booths even before they opened at 7 a.m. A total of 827 candidates were in the fray. Women turned up in large numbers to vote.
Earlier on Thursday, the stock market took a pounding over a possible lack of clear mandate in Bihar.
The Bihar election is a litmus test for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), whose winning streak since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls was halted by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi in February this year.
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