CEOs expect GDP growth to remain subdued
3 Sep 2012 5:44 AM GMT
A snap poll conducted by CII, among the members of its National Council shows that a majority of CEOs remain pessimistic about the outlook for the economy in the current year and expect only a moderate recovery in the forthcoming year.
The poll results indicate that GDP growth during 2012-13 is expected to remain below 6.0% by as many as 44% of the respondents while no one expects it to cross 7.0%. Another 44% expect it to remain between 6.0 and 6.5%.
The scenario is not likely to improve drastically in 2013-14 either as more than half of the respondents (52%) expect GDP growth to remain in the range of 6.0-6.5%, while only 36% expect it to lie between 6.5% and 7.5%.
‘This reflects low confidence levels in industry. The first quarter gross domestic product growth at 5.5 percent corroborates the fact that the slowdown is sustaining. Our best hope would be that the economy is bottoming out.
‘However, from the results of the snap poll or from government data, we do not have adequate indicators to substantiate this hypothesis’, said Mr. Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, CII.
On inflation, a majority of CEOs (56%) expect the average rate of inflation in 2012-13 to be in the range of 7.0-8.0%. 32% of the respondents expect it to be lower between 6.0-7.0% while 12% expect it to be higher between 8.0-9.0%.
These expectations are in line with that being projected by the RBI, which is 7.0% by March 2013.
The poll results indicate that the CEOs attribute about 64% of inflation to increase in costs. On the other hand, demand side factors contribute about 36 per cent to the present figures of inflation in the last few months.Â
The poll results indicate that GDP growth during 2012-13 is expected to remain below 6.0% by as many as 44% of the respondents while no one expects it to cross 7.0%. Another 44% expect it to remain between 6.0 and 6.5%.
The scenario is not likely to improve drastically in 2013-14 either as more than half of the respondents (52%) expect GDP growth to remain in the range of 6.0-6.5%, while only 36% expect it to lie between 6.5% and 7.5%.
‘This reflects low confidence levels in industry. The first quarter gross domestic product growth at 5.5 percent corroborates the fact that the slowdown is sustaining. Our best hope would be that the economy is bottoming out.
‘However, from the results of the snap poll or from government data, we do not have adequate indicators to substantiate this hypothesis’, said Mr. Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, CII.
On inflation, a majority of CEOs (56%) expect the average rate of inflation in 2012-13 to be in the range of 7.0-8.0%. 32% of the respondents expect it to be lower between 6.0-7.0% while 12% expect it to be higher between 8.0-9.0%.
These expectations are in line with that being projected by the RBI, which is 7.0% by March 2013.
The poll results indicate that the CEOs attribute about 64% of inflation to increase in costs. On the other hand, demand side factors contribute about 36 per cent to the present figures of inflation in the last few months.Â
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