Vedanta poised to gain from commodity cycle: Analysts

New Delhi: Vedanta Ltd’s second-quarter results matched street expectations, with analysts projecting strong gains ahead as the miner benefits from a global commodity rebound and steady debt reduction.

Brokerages including Nuvama, Citi, ICICI Securities, and Investec maintained a bullish outlook on Vedanta, citing healthy leverage levels at parent Vedanta Resources, expected aluminium price uptrend, volume growth, cost efficiencies, and the nearing completion of the company’s demerger.

Nuvama said Vedanta’s focus on demerger and delivery is paying off, forecasting a 20 per cent sequential jump in Q3 FY26 EBITDA driven by higher prices and lower aluminium costs. It raised FY27 EBITDA estimates by 4 per cent to Rs 63,450 crore.

Citi Research also projected aluminium prices averaging $3,500 in 2027, backed by energy-transition demand, AI-led growth, and supportive global monetary conditions. It increased its FY26–28 EBITDA forecasts for Vedanta by up to 16 per cent, citing higher aluminium, zinc, and silver prices and new power assets.

ICICI Securities said Vedanta remains a prime beneficiary of the commodity cycle, with aluminium leading earnings amid favourable demand-supply dynamics and cost control.

The brokerage highlighted strong contributions from zinc and power and the company’s backward integration moves to become one of the lowest-cost producers.

Investec commended Vedanta Resources’ debt refinancing progress and forecast additional FY26 dividends of Rs 20 per share after Rs 23 already declared in H1.

Vedanta’s profit after tax before exceptional items jumped 13 per cent year-on-year to Rs 5,026 crore.

The company clocked second quarter EBITDA of Rs 11,612 crore, reflecting 12 per cent YoY growth with EBITDA margin expanded by 69 bps YoY to 34 per cent.