Jewellery retail revenues seen rising 18% in FY27 on high bullion prices

Mumbai: The domestic jewellery retail sector is projected to post around 18 per cent revenue growth in 2026-27, with rising bullion prices expected to drive value growth, a report said on Tuesday.

Ind-Ra has raised its FY26 revenue growth targets by 600bp to 23 per cent Y-o-Y, led by price effects, and expects it to settle at a high-teen rate (18 per cent) for FY27 on a high base. Accordingly, Ind-Ra has revised its outlook on the retail jewellery sector to neutral from improving for FY27.

“Jewellery volumes are set to drop sharply in FY26 - the steepest post-pandemic decline, due to high gold prices, but strong festive and wedding-season buying in 2HFY26 boosted sentiments, even at record high prices, leading to an upward revision in our revenue growth expectations,” Preeti Kumaran, Senior Analyst, India Ratings & Research.

Reshaping consumer behaviour to accept record-high gold prices as the new normal, along with re-aligning the product mix by increasing the proportion of studded jewellery, lower-purity (9k, 14k and 18k) gold jewellery, light and ultra-light pieces for the mass segment to accelerate inventory turns, will aid jewellers in navigating industry challenges over the near to medium term, she added.

Organised jewellers’ revenues are expected to surge 23 per cent yoy during FY26, up 600bp from the earlier forecast, largely benefiting from the steep gold price rise, Adarsh Gutha, Associate Director, Corporate Ratings, Ind-Ra, said.

Trust, transparency, and regulatory compliance will continue to benefit organised jewellers, resulting in CAGR growth of 17 per cent over FY26-FY28, a faster pace than the 7 per cent forecasted for unorganised jewellers, he stated. With gold outperforming with exceptional returns among various asset classes, investment demand is expected to remain steady, said the report.