India’s imports of Russian crude oil decline ‘sharply’ in December

New Delhi: India’s imports of Russian crude oil are set to register a sharp pullback in December, but the decline reflects short-term disruptions rather than a structural shift in sourcing patterns.

According to real-time data analytics company Kpler, Russian crude imports into India are expected to fall to around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, down from 1.84 million bpd in November, marking the lowest level since December 2022.

Indian refiners continue to buy Russian crude from non-sanctioned entities.

The drop, flagged by analysts as early as October, has been driven by disruptions resulting from US action on top Russian exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as due to the impact of EU sanctions on Russian-linked product flows.

“India’s appetite for Russian crude cooled sharply in December, with imports falling to their lowest levels since 2022 as major refiners cut intake following sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. This appears to be a near-term adjustment, with Russian crude imports into India expected to recover gradually from January as new intermediaries step in and supply chains re-establish,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining &

Modeling, Kpler.

India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, became the largest buyer of discounted Russian crude after Western countries shunned Moscow following its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Traditionally reliant on the Middle Eastern oil, India sharply ramped up Russian imports as sanctions and reduced European demand made barrels available at steep discounts, pushing its share from under 1 per cent to nearly 40 per cent of total crude imports.

In December, Russia remained the country’s top supplier but its share fell to less than a quarter of all oil imports from about a third in November.

Following US sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil and their majority-owned subsidiaries taking effect on November 21, refiners including Reliance Industries, Hindustan Petroleum, HPCL-Mittal Energy and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals temporarily halted Russian imports. The only exception is Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy, which continues to rely heavily on Russian crude after EU sanctions curtailed alternative supplies.

“Russian crude oil imports to India are retreating sharply in December, with volumes forecast to fall to around 1.2 million bpd (25 per cent of India’s total import) - down from 1.84 million bpd in November,” Ritolia said.

“The decline is largely driven by reduced intake from major buyers, particularly Reliance Industries (RIL) and the New Mangalore refinery, both of which have significantly scaled back Russian crude purchases during the month.”