India’s exports to rise 8.7% to $125.3 bn in Q4: Exim Bank

New Delhi: The Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) has projected India’s merchandise exports at $125.3 billion in the January–March quarter (Q4) of FY2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7 per cent.

Non-oil exports are expected to rise 12.1 per cent to $113.4 billion, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast at $98 billion, up 5.7 per cent during the quarter.

For the full financial year FY2026, total merchandise exports are estimated at $455.6 billion, marking a 4.1 per cent increase.

Non-oil exports are likely to reach $401.6 billion, growing 7.3 per cent, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are projected at $364.9 billion, up 5.7 per cent.

The bank said export prospects are expected to strengthen further, supported by sustained macroeconomic stability, a competitive exchange rate and higher capital expenditure outlined in the Union Budget.

Export relief measures, greater geographical diversification and positive outcomes from recently concluded trade negotiations with select countries are also seen aiding growth.

However, global uncertainty and volatility in commodity markets remain key downside risks.

Exim Bank releases its quarterly export growth forecasts in May, August, November and February using its in-house Export Leading Index (ELI) model.

The next forecast, covering the April–June 2026 quarter (Q1 FY2027), will be released in the first fortnight of May 2026.

The ELI model and forecast results are reviewed by a standing technical committee comprising experts from policy and academic institutions, including the Reserve Bank of India, Jadavpur University, Madras School of Economics and the Centre for Development

Studies.