Third wave in 6-8 weeks if Covid norms not followed: AIIMS chief

New Delhi: If Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed and crowding not prevented, the next wave of the viral infection can strike the country in the next six to eight weeks, AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria warned on Saturday.

On the other hand, the Delta variant of Coronavirus has been detected for the first time in two states in the North-East — Manipur and Mizoram, sources told a private news channel.

After testing 20 samples from Manipur in a laboratory in Hyderabad, 18 were found to be of Delta variant, sources said.

Mizoram reported four cases of the highly infectious variant, also known as B.1.617.2. The Delta variant has been detected in four COVID-19 patients in Aizawl district. Their samples were sent along with others to the National Institute of Biomedical Genomics in West Bengal. The Delta variant is now being reported in about 80 countries around the world.

Meanwhile, in regard to the third wave, Guleria said until a sizeable number of the population are vaccinated, Covid-appropriate behaviour needs to be followed aggressively, and stressed on the need for stricter surveillance and area-specific lockdowns in case of a significant surge.

He reiterated that till now, there is no evidence to suggest that children will be affected more in the next wave of the infection.

Earlier, India's epidemiologists had indicated that the third wave of COVID-19 is inevitable and is likely to start from September-October.

India was hit severely by a brutal second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in April and May, claiming a massive number of lives daily, with a shortage in oxygen supply at various hospitals adding to the woes.

However, the number of cases have shown a downward trend and the positivity rate too has been shrinking in the last several days. From a daily case count of over 4 lakh, the number of new COVID-19 cases has been hovering around 60,000 in the last couple of days.

"If Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed, the third wave can happen in six to eight weeks. We need to work aggressively to prevent another large wave till vaccination kicks in," Guleria said.

There needs to be an aggressive surveillance strategy in Covid hotspots and lockdowns in case of any significant surge. The moment a significant surge in cases is noted in a particular area and the positivity rate goes beyond 5 per cent, area-specific lockdown and containment measures should be implemented, he said.

"However, a national-level lockdown cannot be a solution (to rein in the pandemic) keeping economic activity in mind."

Guleria's statement came a day after the Delhi High Court took note of Covid norms being violated in markets in the national Capital following the easing of restrictions this week and warned that the breach of protocol will only hasten the third wave.

Taking note of certain photographs sent to one of the judges of the High Court by an AIIMS doctor showing scant regard for Covid protocols by street vendors in markets, a vacation bench of Justices Navin Chawla and Asha Menon directed the Centre and the Delhi government to submit status reports about the situation.

The third wave cannot be permitted at all, the Delhi High Court stated.

With 60,753 new Covid cases being reported in a day, India's total tally rose to 2,98,23,546, while the number of active cases stand at 7,60,019, the lowest in 74 days, according to Union Health ministry data updated on Saturday.

The death toll climbed to 3,85,137 with 1,647 fresh fatalities and active cases comprise 2.55 per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate has improved to 96.16 per cent, the data updated at 8 am showed.