Southwest monsoon withdrawal likely to begin September 15: IMD
New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is expected to start withdrawing from parts of northwest India around September 15, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The department said conditions are becoming favourable for the retreat to commence from west Rajasthan.
Typically, the monsoon makes its onset over Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. Its withdrawal begins around September 17 from the northwest and is usually complete by October 15.
This year, the rain-bearing system advanced faster than usual, reaching Kerala on May 24, its earliest arrival over the mainland since 2009. The monsoon subsequently spread across the entire country by June 30, nine days ahead of schedule. The last time it had covered the country earlier was in 2020, when it did so by June 26.
India has received 836.2 mm of rainfall during the current season, compared with the normal of 778.6 mm, marking a 7 per cent surplus. The excess has been uneven across regions. Northwest India recorded 720.4 mm of rain, 34 per cent above the normal 538.1 mm, while central India measured 978.3 mm, 11 per cent higher than the average 882 mm. The southern peninsula also registered a 7 per cent surplus over its seasonal norm of 611 mm. In contrast, the east and northeast have faced a shortfall, with 949.6 mm of rain so far against a normal 1,192.6 mm, a deficit of 20 per cent. The IMD linked the above-normal rainfall largely to active monsoon conditions strengthened by frequent western disturbances. However, the heavy spells also coincided with extreme weather events in several regions. Punjab endured its worst flooding in decades, with swollen rivers and breached canals inundating farmlands and displacing thousands. In the Himalayan states, landslides triggered by cloudbursts and flash floods caused widespread damage. Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand reported washed-out roads and bridges, while Jammu and Kashmir was repeatedly hit by cloudbursts and landslides. In its seasonal forecast issued in May, the IMD had projected rainfall at 106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm for the June–September period. Rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of this average is defined as normal. The monsoon remains vital for India’s agriculture sector, which sustains about 42 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the country’s GDP. It also replenishes reservoirs critical for drinking water supply and hydropower generation.
