Monsoon rainfall near normal, IMD flags disparities

New Delhi: The southwest monsoon season has so far delivered rainfall levels close to the long-term average, but the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says the distribution across states remains uneven.

Data released by the agency shows that between June 1 and August 10, the country received 539 mm of rain compared with the seasonal norm of 535.6 mm — about one per cent above the long-period average (LPA). “The overall figures may suggest stability, but regional variations are significant,” an IMD official said.

The IMD classifies rainfall across 36 states and union territories into five categories. For this season to date, 25 regions are marked as “normal” — meaning rainfall within 19 per cent of the LPA. Five states fall into the “deficient” bracket (20–59 per cent below normal), another five are in the “excess” range (20–59 per cent above normal), and one — Ladakh — is recorded in the “large excess” category, exceeding 60 per cent above normal. No area is currently in the “large deficient” category.

The northeastern states have seen the most pronounced deficits. Arunachal Pradesh has received 652.1 mm against a seasonal norm of 1,081.0 mm, around 40 per cent lower. Assam’s shortfall stands at 37 per cent, Meghalaya at 45 per cent, Sikkim at 20 per cent and Bihar at 25 per cent below their respective averages.

In contrast, five regions have recorded substantial surpluses. Jharkhand logged 853.7 mm, about 41 per cent above its LPA, while Delhi recorded 433.5 mm, 37 per cent higher than average. Rajasthan, with 430.6 mm, is up 58 per cent, Madhya Pradesh has 30 per cent more than its seasonal norm, and Puducherry stands 32 per cent above average.

Ladakh, usually a low-rainfall region, has registered an unusual spike — 31.8 mm so far compared to its norm of 14.8 mm, marking a 115 per cent jump.

States within the “normal” range include Uttar Pradesh, which is 11 per cent above its LPA at 478.0 mm, Maharashtra at 585.2 mm (9 per cent below but still within the range), and Karnataka with 587.8 mm (10 per cent above).

Despite the overall normal reading, several areas have experienced extreme weather events. Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand faced severe cloudbursts, landslides and flash floods during July and early August, causing significant disruption. Delhi and surrounding districts saw episodes of intense rain and waterlogging in late July and early August. “The second half of the monsoon, in August and September, is expected to be generally wetter,” the IMD stated, adding that above-normal rainfall is likely across much of the country. However, some pockets in the northeast and eastern India could remain drier.

The IMD also noted that parts of the northeast have faced below-normal rainfall for several consecutive years, raising concerns about sustained regional disparities.

In May, the department forecast seasonal rainfall at 106 per cent of the LPA of 87 cm for June–September. Under IMD definitions, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the LPA is classified as “normal”.

The monsoon remains a vital determinant for India’s agriculture, which supports about 42 per cent of the population and contributes over 18 per cent to the national GDP. It is equally critical for replenishing reservoirs that serve both drinking water needs and power generation.