Monsoon expected to reach Kerala on May 29... three days in advance: IMD

New Delhi: If predictions of the Indian Metrological Department (IMD) are to be believed, the South-West Monsoon is expected to hit Kerala on May 29, which is three days in advance of its normal date of onset on India's mainland. "The south-west monsoon is expected to set in over Kerala on May 29 with a model error of ± 4 days," the IMD said while announcing the possibility of the early arrival of the monsoon.

As per the previous trends, it has been noticed that the South-West Monsoon generally sets over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. The arrival of monsoon marks the start of the rainy season over the region resulting in relief from scorching summer temperatures.

Given that the country's official weather forecaster has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala since 2005, it has been proved correct during the past 13 years (2005-2017) except in 2015, which witnessed a severe drought in the country.

The IMD had on April 16 predicted a 'normal' monsoon this year by announcing the season's rainfall in the lower end of the normal range, at 97 per cent of the long period average (LPA).

Even though there was 'below normal' rainfall last year, the IMD's prediction of a 'normal' monsoon is the third time in a row. Rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of LPA during the June-September monsoon period is considered normal.

The IMD will update its forecast, along with predictions for different regions and months, in early June. Stating about the advancement of monsoon over the Andaman Sea, the IMD said, "The south-west monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea normally around May 20 with a standard deviation of about one week. Conditions are likely to become favourable for the advance of south-west monsoon into some parts of the Andaman Sea and the south-east Bay of Bengal around May 23."

"Past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country," the IMD said.