Monsoon blankets India 6 days ahead of schedule
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Tuesday that the southwest monsoon has covered the entire country six days earlier than usual, despite a sluggish start in mid-June. The monsoon reached its final destinations in Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab on July 2, 2024, compared to the normal date of July 8.
The monsoon arrived in Kerala and the northeastern region on May 30, two and six days earlier than usual.
It progressed normally up to Maharashtra but then lost momentum, delaying rains in West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, and exacerbating a scorching heat wave in northwest India.
From June 11 to June 27, the country recorded 16 days of below-normal rainfall, resulting in an overall below-normal precipitation in June, with 147.2 mm of rainfall compared to the normal 165.3 mm, making it the seventh lowest since 2001.
June rainfall accounts for 15 per cent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
Typically, the southwest monsoon arrives in Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17, withdrawing entirely by October 15.
IMD data indicates this is the third consecutive year the monsoon has covered the entire country ahead of schedule. Monsoon rains covered the entire country on July 2 in both 2022 and 2021. Since 2011, the monsoon has covered the country earlier than the usual date seven times.
Last year, the monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 8, seven days behind the normal date, and covered the entire country by July 2, six days early. Monsoon withdrawal began in west Rajasthan on September 25, with an eight-day delay.
The IMD on Tuesday stated that the monsoon will remain active over northwest, east, and northeast India during the next four to five days.
Isolated very heavy rainfall is expected over Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura from July 2 to 6. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is very likely over Arunachal Pradesh Assam, and Meghalaya on July 5-6.
Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, parts of Gujarat, and coastal Karnataka could experience a few spells of very heavy rain during this period, according to the Met office.
On Monday, the weather department predicted above-normal rainfall in July, with heavy rains potentially leading to floods in the western Himalayan states and river basins in the central parts of the country.
The northeastern states are already facing severe floods. Assam’s flood situation remains critical with over 671,000 people affected in 20 districts in the second wave of flooding this year. Heavy rainfall in Manipur and Mizoram has caused rivers to reach warning levels and triggered landslides.
The year 2023 witnessed devastating floods in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in July and August, and in the Teesta river in the eastern Himalayas in October, despite below-average rainfall.
The IMD had earlier forecast above-normal rainfall for the 2024 monsoon season in India, with cumulative precipitation estimated at 106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm.
However, normal cumulative rainfall during the monsoon season doesn’t guarantee an even spatial and temporal spread of precipitation. The Indian monsoon is characterized by natural variability, which refers to the inherent fluctuations and changes that occur over time. However, research indicates that climate change is increasing the variability of the monsoon, leading to more extreme weather and dry spells.
