Meteorological Department, Skymet forecast contrary to initial prediction

New Delhi: As the four-month rainfall season ended with "above normal" monsoon, initial predictions by the India Meteorological Department and the private forecaster Skymet Weather were found to be contrary to the outcome.

While IMD in April had said the country would receive 96 per cent of the Long Period Average, Skymet had predicted 93 per cent of the LPA.

Both had given an error margin of plus or minus five per cent.

Ninety-six per cent of LPA falls on the borderline of "below normal" and "normal" rainfall. Skymet had cited El Nino as the reason behind a possible below normal rainfall.

However, as the rainfall season ended, IMD recorded a whopping 10 per cent more rainfall.

Mohapatra, director-general of IMD, said the department would do a detailed analysis.

He, however, added that IMD was able to gauge the trends like El Nino turning neutral and the Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive. Mohapatra said the IMD also did not change the forecast even when June ended with 33 per cent deficiency.

"We will carry out an analysis on this," he said, adding that there has been a significant improvement in the seasonal forecast.

Mohapatra said several global models had predicted below normal monsoon because of the El Nino, but IMD stuck to its prediction and did not revise it.

"In spite of several global models indicating a strong possibility of continuation of an El Nino episode during the monsoon season and possibly a below-normal monsoon, IMD had predicted a normal rainfall (96-104 per cent of LPA)

"While issuing the forecasts, based on IMD's models, it was suggested that the El Nino episode would weaken further and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event will emerge in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, IMD also predicted that the monsoon performance would be better in the second half compared to the first half," a statement by the IMD said.

Citing reasons behind the above-normal rainfall, Mahesh Palawat Vice-President (Climate Change and Meteorology), Skymet Weather, said El Nino, most of the time, overwhelms IOD. But this time it was the other way around.

Most global models indicated below normal rainfall, Palawat said.With PTI inputs