March 2024 warmest ever, 12-month average temperature reaches new record

New Delhi: The European Union’s climate agency, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), reported that March 2024 was the hottest on record, marking the 10th month in a row of unprecedented temperatures. The trend is attributed to a combination of El Nino conditions and human-induced climate change.

In March, the average temperature was 14.14 degrees Celsius, which is 1.68 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial reference period (1850-1900) average. It also surpassed the March average for 1991-2020 by 0.73 degrees Celsius and exceeded the previous record set in March 2016 by 0.10 degrees Celsius.

The past year (April 2023-March 2024) has seen the highest global average temperature ever recorded. It was 0.70 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average and 1.58 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

For the first time, the global average temperature exceeded the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold for an entire year in January. However, the Paris Agreement refers to a permanent breach of this limit as long-term warming over many years.

Climate scientists warn that to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, the rise in global average temperature must be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The global surface temperature of the Earth has already risen by approximately 1.15 degrees Celsius compared to the 1850-1900 average, a level not seen since before the last ice age, 125,000 years ago. This increase is believed to be the cause of record droughts, wildfires, and floods worldwide.

The surge in global average temperature is linked to the rapidly increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere. Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S, emphasised that “March 2024 continues the sequence of climate records toppling in both air temperature and ocean surface temperatures, with the 10th consecutive record-breaking month. The global average temperature is the highest recorded, with the past 12 months being 1.58 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Stopping further warming requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.”

In 2023, the global average near-surface temperature was 1.45 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900), making it the warmest year in the 174-year observational record. Scientists predict that 2024 could set a new record due to the impact of El Nino, a periodic warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which typically has the greatest effect on global climate in the second year of its development.

The ongoing, albeit weaker, El Nino and predicted above-normal sea-surface temperatures over much of the global oceans are expected to result in above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas until May and influence regional rainfall patterns, according to a March update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

There is a possibility of La Nina developing later in the year. Scientists tracking developments in India suggest that if La Nina conditions set in by June-August, it could lead to better monsoon rains this year compared to 2023. El Nino events, which occur every two to seven years on average and typically last nine to 12 months, are associated with increased rainfall in the Horn of Africa and the southern US, and unusually dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa. The current El Nino event, which began in June 2023, was at its strongest between November and January.