India’s Russian oil imports surge to 2 million barrels a day in August

New Delhi: India’s crude oil imports from Russia rose sharply in August, reaching 2 million barrels per day (bpd) as domestic refiners opted for cost-effective sourcing amid shifting global trade dynamics, according to data from Kpler.

Figures for the first half of August show Russian oil accounting for 38 per cent of India’s total crude imports of approximately 5.2 million bpd. The volume marks a significant jump from 1.6 million bpd in July. This growth came as shipments from Iraq fell to 730,000 bpd from 907,000 bpd in the previous month, while Saudi Arabia’s supplies dropped to 526,000 bpd from 700,000 bpd. The United States ranked as India’s fifth-largest supplier during the period, sending 264,000 bpd. “Russian crude imports into India have so far remained resilient in August, even after the Trump administration’s tariff announcement in late July 2025,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modeling) at Kpler. “But the stability we’re seeing now is mostly a result of timing – August cargoes were locked in back in June and early July, well before any policy shifts.”

Ritolia added that any real change in import patterns—whether due to tariffs, payment complications, or shipping delays—would only become visible from late September into October. “There’s been no government directive to cut Russian volumes. So from a policy standpoint, it’s business as usual,” he noted.

Arvinder Singh Sahney, Chairman of Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), said the government had issued no instructions to either slow or accelerate Russian purchases in the wake of President Donald Trump’s move to impose an additional 25 per cent tariff on US imports from India, raising the total duty to 50 per cent. The tariff was framed as a penalty for India’s continued intake of Russian oil.

“Neither we are being told to buy nor told not to buy,” Sahney said. “We are not making extra effort to either increase or decrease the share of Russian crude.”

Sahney noted that Russian oil made up around 22 per cent of the crude processed by IOC between April and June, and that share was likely to stay steady in the short term.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) Director (Finance) Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta told investors that Russian imports had dipped in July from 34 per cent of overall crude intake in the April–June quarter, as discounts had narrowed to USD 1.5 per barrel. “As long as there is no new sanction on Russian oil, our procurement strategy will be 30–35 per cent of Russian crude for the remaining year,” Gupta said.

India—ranked the world’s third-largest oil consumer and importer—shifted swiftly to discounted Russian supplies following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Before the war, Russian oil accounted for less than 0.2 per cent of India’s imports; it now constitutes between 35 and 40 per cent. Discounts, once as high as USD 40 per barrel, have narrowed sharply, though this month they have recovered to above USD 2 per barrel.

According to Ritolia, refiners are assessing the market closely. “There’s growing interest in sourcing more barrels from the US, West Africa, and Latin America—not necessarily to replace Russian supply, but to hedge against possible disruptions,” he said. “It’s a shift from margin maximisation to energy security and logistical risk management.”

He stressed that diversifying sources did not mean abandoning Russian crude. “Indian refiners still need to source 60–65 per cent of their crude from non-Russian suppliers, and that mix hasn’t suddenly changed. What we’re seeing is added flexibility, not a deliberate pivot. Until there’s a clear policy change or sustained shift in trade economics, Russian flows remain part of India’s crude basket.”

Sahney reiterated that crude purchases were guided by economics. “Such purchases will continue unless sanctions are imposed,” he said. “We have not got any instruction to either increase or decrease purchase. We are doing business as usual.” Responding to speculation about refiners being urged to buy more from the US, Sahney added, “Neither are we being told to buy more nor are we told to buy less from US or any other destination. Economic considerations dictate our actions.”with agency inputs