India to be strong contender for the Nobel Peace Prize if they broker a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement

India would surely be a top contender for the world’s greatest Peace Prize—the Nobel—if it can successfully broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

In an exclusive interview from Norway, Henrik Urdal, the Director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), said that if India leverages its increasing international clout for successful conflict mediation, the country and its Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, could win the Nobel Peace Prize.

“The area where I think a strong Indian performance and leadership could result in a Peace Prize is conflict mediation. If Prime Minister Modi takes a leadership position here, and significant results are achieved, he could win the Nobel Peace Prize,” Urdal said.

He added: “As an emerging global power, India has a great opportunity and responsibility to play a positive and constructive role in a world currently struggling. India seems to have the ambition to contribute to strengthening multilateral collaboration and to play a role in mediation efforts. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is one example, with others being regional conflicts like Myanmar.”

The number of Ukrainians and Russians killed or wounded in the two-and-a-half-year-long war is believed to have crossed one million—a staggering number of lives lost for both countries.

Urdal’s comments come just a couple of months after Modi visited both Ukraine and Russia, with India now being seen globally as a country working in the shadows to broker a peace deal between the two nations.

India’s National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval, travelled to Moscow soon after to hold crucial discussions.

“We are not neutral. From the very beginning, we have taken sides. And we have chosen the side of peace. We come from the land of Buddha, where there is no place for war,” PM Modi said during his recent visit to Ukraine.

The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on October 11.

Responding to the question of whether the Prize should be withheld this year in light of the increasing number of ongoing conflicts in the world, Urdal said: “There has been a strong increase in conflicts around the world, especially since 2014. There were 59 active armed conflicts in 2023, the highest number recorded since the dataset started in 1946. The Nobel Peace Prize gets very wide attention every year, so I do not believe that interest in the prize is declining despite increasing conflict.”

“India has historically been one of the countries with the highest number of ongoing regional conflicts (as has Ethiopia, both are large and diverse countries). ‘State-based’ conflicts (rebels vs. the Indian state) have been decreasing in recent years, while non-state (inter-communal) violence has been on the rise.”

“My view is that, as we see more conflict, it becomes more important to acknowledge and celebrate the many important contributions to peace, locally, regionally, and globally, that are made every day and often by people putting their own health and life on the line. The prize helps shed light on the causes of the winners, and may offer protection, open doors, and provide a platform to work from,” he added.

According to Urdal, “The Peace Prize is likely to deter conflict (although such a counterfactual is nearly impossible to establish), but I do believe it can help de-escalate conflicts and support stability in post-conflict societies (arguably, the prize helped the Colombian peace agreement cross the finish line). More generally, the Peace Prize can draw attention to alternatives to violence and human rights abuses, strengthen those who work for peace and human rights, and boost support for those assisting the victims of war. For example, the prize awarded to the World Food Program made it easier for them to raise support for their programs.”

So, who does Urdal believe are the top front runners for this year’s prize? Each year, PRIO’s Director presents his own list of candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize, with this year’s Election Observers topping the list. The 2024 list includes OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, UNRWA and Philippe Lazzarini, the International Court of Justice, UNESCO, and the Council of Europe.

Urdal said: “Democracy is on the ballot this year, as more than half the world’s population lives in a country heading to the polls, albeit not exclusively in democracies. Research shows that democratic states are more peaceful and stable. As elections are a cornerstone of democracy, election observers play a pivotal role in shaping perceptions about the legitimacy of electoral processes. A Nobel Peace Prize awarded to election observers would send a strong message about the importance of free and fair elections, and their role in peace and stability.”

Explaining how the list is created, Urdal said: “The list comes about as a result of a collective effort within the PRIO organisation. We organise an internal staff meeting in late January each year, drawing on very diverse expertise (PRIO has more than 30 different nationalities among its staff and is truly multidisciplinary). While the ambition is not to predict the most likely winners, I consider ODIHR and the ICJ to be the candidates with the greatest prospects for actually receiving the prize this year.”

He added: “I think it is more likely than not that we will see an organisation win this year. It has been four years since an organisation last won, and I believe the committee may want to underscore the importance of multilateralism. If they choose an individual, my proposed frontrunner would be UNRWA Director-General Lazzarini, or alternatively, ICC Chief Prosecutor Khan.”

The Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded 104 times to 141 Nobel laureates between 1901 and 2023, including 111 individuals and 30 organisations. Since the International Committee of the Red Cross has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize three times (in 1917, 1944, and 1963) and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees twice (in 1954 and 1981), 27 individual organisations have received the Nobel Peace Prize.

The Norwegian Nobel Institute has registered a

total of 286 candidates for this year’s Peace Prize, of which 197 are individuals and 89 are organisations.