IMD warns: Heatwave days set to rise

New Delhi: India is likely to experience a higher number of heatwave days across parts of the east, central and northwest regions, along with the southeastern peninsula, during the April to June period, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its latest monthly outlook released on Tuesday.

Despite the warning on heatwaves, the IMD indicated that maximum temperatures across large parts of the country are expected to remain normal to below normal during the three-month period. Exceptions include much of east and northeast India, eastern parts of central India, and adjoining peninsular areas, where above-normal maximum temperatures are forecast.

Minimum temperatures, however, are expected to remain above normal across most regions during the hot weather season. “During the hot season (April-May-June), above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some regions of Maharashtra and Telangana, where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely,” the IMD said.

For April specifically, the weather agency expects maximum temperatures to stay normal to below normal in many areas. Still, several regions including east and northeast India, parts of northwest India, and sections of southern peninsular India are likely to record above-normal daytime temperatures. Minimum temperatures in April are also projected to remain above normal across most of the country, with only isolated pockets in the southern peninsula expected to see normal readings. Rainfall patterns for April are expected to be largely favourable. The IMD forecast normal to above-normal rainfall over most parts of India, while northeast India may see below-normal precipitation. The long period average rainfall for April, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 39.2 mm.

On broader climate conditions, the IMD noted that neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, though some atmospheric features resemble weak La Niña conditions. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System suggest that neutral conditions are likely to persist through April to June, with the likelihood of El Niño developing increasing thereafter.

Reviewing March weather, the IMD said rainfall during the month ranked as the 10th highest since 2001, driven by eight western disturbances compared to the usual five or six. “This led to a reduction in maximum temperatures over most parts of the country. As a result, no heat wave conditions prevailed over the country during the second half of the month,” the department said.

The IMD also reported weather-related fatalities in March, with 32 deaths due to lightning across several states. Additional casualties included four deaths from thunderstorms in Bihar and Odisha, and in Jammu and Kashmir, seven deaths from snowfall along with two fatalities linked to floods and heavy rainfall.