IMD predicts above-normal rainfall for August-September

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday forecasted above-normal rainfall for India in August and September, with a high likelihood of favourable La Nina conditions developing by the end of August. IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra announced during an online press conference that rainfall over India in these months is expected to be around 106 per cent of the long-period average of 422.8 mm.

Since June 1, India has recorded 453.8 mm of rainfall against the normal of 445.8 mm, resulting in a surplus of two per cent. This is primarily due to a wetter-than-normal July following a drier June. The IMD expects normal to above-normal rainfall in most parts of the country for August-September, with some regions likely to experience below-normal rainfall.

The IMD chief anticipates deficient rainfall in parts of the western Himalayan region during this period. He also noted that above-normal maximum temperatures are expected over most parts of the country, with some areas in the Gangetic plains, central India, and the southeast coast likely to experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures.

India recorded nine per cent more rainfall than normal in July, with the central region receiving 33 per cent excess rain. This marks the third consecutive monsoon season of good rainfall for central India, which heavily relies on monsoon rainfall for agriculture.

However, significant rainfall deficits were observed in east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, and parts of the northeast. The rainfall deficit in Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir ranged from 35 per cent to 45 per cent. Mohapatra explained that central and southern India received surplus rain as the monsoon trough remained south of its normal position on most days.

The IMD has been issuing regular forecasts for significant rainfall activity along India’s west coast. On July 30, a red alert was issued for Kerala in the early morning. This came in the wake of heavy rain-induced landslides that claimed over 150 lives in Wayanad district on July 30.

The incident sparked a controversy when Union Home Minister Amit Shah claimed that the Kerala government did not heed the Centre’s warning about a possible natural calamity in Wayanad due to heavy rains. In response, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan stated that the IMD had only issued an orange alert for the district ahead of the landslides. He noted that the district received over 572 mm of rainfall, significantly higher than what the IMD had predicted.

Mohapatra clarified that the IMD had issued an extended-range forecast for significant rainfall activity along the west coast on July 18 and July 25. He emphasised that an orange warning means “be prepared for action and one should not wait for red warnings.”

Similar warnings were in place for Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, where recent heavy rains caused significant damage and loss of life. Three people were killed and about 40 went missing after two separate incidents of cloudburst in Himachal Pradesh.

The IMD chief explained that the heavy rainfall in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand was due to the shifting of the monsoon trough to the north of its normal position. For Delhi, an orange warning was issued with a lead time of two days.