Heavy rainfall across India offsets June deficit, monsoon now in surplus

New Delhi: Heavy rainfall across large parts of India has effectively compensated for the deficit recorded in June, bringing the overall monsoon precipitation into the surplus category, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported.

The IMD predicts more spells of heavy to very heavy rain over northwest India and the western parts of the peninsular region over the next two to three days, with similar conditions expected in the northeast over the next five days.

India, the world’s top producer of key crops such as rice, wheat, and sugarcane, had logged an 11 per cent rainfall deficit in June, with northwest India particularly affected, experiencing a shortfall of 33 per cent. However, heavy rain in the first week of July has mitigated the shortfall but has also led to flooding in many northeastern states.

Since the monsoon season began on June 1, India has received 214.9 mm of rainfall, slightly above the normal of 213.3 mm, according to IMD data. Both northwest India and the southern peninsula have recorded rainfall levels above normal by 3 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively. The heavy rain in the east and northeast regions has eliminated the deficit from 13 per cent on June 30 to zero on July 6. In central India, the rainfall deficit has decreased from 14 per cent to 6 per cent during this period.

IMD data reveals that 23 per cent of the sub-divisional areas experienced excess to large excess rainfall, 67 per cent received normal rainfall, and only 10 per cent recorded deficient rainfall.

The monsoon, which made an early onset over Kerala and the northeastern region on May 30, progressed normally until reaching Maharashtra. However, it stalled from June 10 to June 18, causing delays in rains for West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, exacerbating the heatwave’s impact in northwest India. The monsoonal winds resumed slow progress around June 26-27, eventually covering most of northwest India by June 25.

The weather department forecasts continued heavy rainfall in the northeast over the next five days, where states are already grappling with severe floods. Assam’s flood situation remains critical, affecting over 2.45 million people and resulting in 52 fatalities in the second wave of flooding this year. Heavy rains in Manipur, Mizoram, and Arunachal Pradesh have caused rivers to reach warning levels and triggered landslides.

Earlier this week, the IMD suggested that India might experience above-normal rainfall in July, potentially leading to floods in hilly states and river basins in central regions. Experts from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) have also warned of a challenging monsoon season for countries in the Hindukush Himalayan region, including Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan.

Historical IMD data indicates that in 20 out of the 25 years when June rainfall was below normal (less than 92 per cent of the long-period average), July rainfall was normal (94-106 per cent of LPA) or above normal. Additionally, in 17 of these 25 years, the seasonal rainfall was normal or above normal, providing a hopeful outlook for the remainder of the monsoon season.