Haryana win boosts BJP; disunity and over-confidence cost Congress dearly
NEW DELHI: Turning predictions of all exit polls on their head and crushing the dominant narrative of a Congress comeback, the BJP on Tuesday pulled off a historic hat-trick in Haryana. This stunning victory is sure to act as a tonic for boosting the morale of party workers while delivering a blow to the Congress’s hopes for further ascendency in the political arena after the recent Lok Sabha polls.
For Congress, the phrase “snatching victory from the jaws of defeat” proved true, but in the opposite context: “the party snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.”
The victory in Haryana is bound to blunt detractors’ claims that the BJP’s grip was loosening over its supporters, bringing into sharp focus its organisational efficiency and the leadership’s keen ability to redraw strategies in line with the changing equations and dynamics on the ground.
It turned out to be a pleasant and fruitful “Super Tuesday” for the BJP, which not only defied exit poll predictions to secure a third straight term in Haryana but also went all out in its efforts to counter the decade-old anti-incumbency in the state. As the party prepares for challenging state elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand in a few weeks, and in Delhi early next year, the electoral victory in politically important Haryana will provide much-needed momentum. It will bolster its hopes of another come-from-behind victory.
Political observers also pointed out that, in this assembly election, the BJP worked in close cooperation and as a cohesive unit with its ideological mentor, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), putting to rest speculation that there were differences between the BJP top brass and RSS functionaries. It turned out that RSS functionaries were actively involved in finalising the party’s strategy across states. Often seen to be on the defensive when it has to battle local issues and caste factors, BJP leaders noted that the party successfully turned the tables on the Congress in Haryana by projecting the polls as a contest between the “parchi and kharchi” government led by Bhupinder Singh Hooda from 2004-14 and its “clean” administration since 2014.
With Hooda’s influence dominant in the state Congress, and other party satraps like senior Dalit leader and former Union minister Kumari Selja pushed to the background, the BJP upped its ground game.
Leaders, including poll in-charge and Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan, held meetings with various communities and successfully tapped into the state’s traditional fault line of Jat versus non-Jat politics.
Resentment from vocal Jats and a section of Dalits towards the BJP built up in the run-up to the elections, but the results demonstrated that the relatively muted majority of Other Backward Classes, poorer sections of Dalits, as well as “upper castes” and urban voters rallied behind the saffron party.
The party’s decision to replace Manohar Lal Khattar with an OBC chief minister, Nayab Singh Saini, who had a more affable and younger appeal, also seems to have paid off. BJP leaders involved in the elections said they successfully won back a section of Dalits who had voted against the party in the Lok Sabha polls.
Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public campaign was relatively subdued, with him holding just four rallies, he clearly drew the battle lines by focusing on corruption, nepotism, and casteism under Congress rule. Though Congress increased its vote share by a significant 11 percentage points, its overall share of over 39 per cent was still slightly behind the BJP’s 39.89 per cent, which also saw gains from its support in the 2019 polls.
Haryana’s assembly results showed that Congress continued to suffer from factional fights and infighting. Party insiders believe that the Congress’ overconfidence, internal divisions, and excessive reliance on a single community significantly hindered its chances in the Haryana assembly elections. Despite a decade out of power, the party’s comeback attempt fell short. During the campaign, reports surfaced of prominent Dalit leader Kumari Selja’s resentment towards former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who was spearheading the party’s campaign in the state. The Congress party’s decision to concentrate power around former Bhupinder Singh Hooda proved to be a critical miscalculation. This centralization alienated other significant leaders, most notably former Union Minister and prominent Dalit leader Kumari Selja, who publicly expressed her dissatisfaction and called for party introspection.
The pre-election period was marked by competing leadership claims between Hooda and Selja for the chief minister’s position, creating confusion among voters.
This division became apparent when parallel campaign initiatives emerged: while Hooda and his son Deepender launched their “Ghar Ghar Congress” outreach, a rival faction comprising Selja, Surjewala, and Choudhary conducted their own “Congress Sandesh” campaign. The factional divide was so pronounced that Selja ultimately withdrew from the election campaign entirely, requiring placation efforts that proved unsuccessful.
The concentration of power became starkly evident in ticket distribution, with 72 out of 90 tickets allocated based on Hooda’s recommendations. Selja’s influence had diminished to the point where she couldn’t secure tickets even in her home constituency of Sirsa. The situation was further complicated by an overwhelming number of ticket aspirants—over 2,500—which led to rebel candidates, with approximately ten of them significantly impacting the final results.
The party’s campaign was plagued by overconfidence, with leaders taking BJP’s ten-year anti-incumbency for granted. Their “jawan-kisan-pehalwan” messaging failed to resonate, particularly in Jat-dominated areas. While Congress relied heavily on Jat community support, BJP successfully implemented a broader social coalition strategy. The Congress’s guarantees, which had proven successful in states like Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, failed to gain traction in Haryana despite promises of youth employment and women’s security.
Last-minute decisions further complicated matters. The induction of Ashok Tanwar, viewed as an attempt to undermine Selja, alienated Dalit voters rather than consolidating their support. Rahul Gandhi’s “save the Constitution” campaign struggled to gain momentum, particularly after controversy erupted over his remarks in the US regarding reservations.
The defeat carries significant implications beyond Haryana’s borders, creating uncertainty ahead of Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly polls. It exposes the urgent need for party restructuring in Delhi and other states, while demonstrating the necessity for better handling of internal dissent—an area where the BJP proved more effective. This setback serves as a crucial wake-up call for Congress to address its organisational challenges and leadership issues before facing future electoral battles. The party’s inability to manage factionalism, combined with strategic missteps and overconfidence, ultimately led to its downfall in what could have been a winnable election.
The results in Haryana also showed the total decimation of the state-level JJP party and limited success for INLD, which won just two seats. The narrative firmly revolved around the two national parties.
