Exit to exact: Haryana stays saffron, J&K goes NC-Cong way
NEW DELHI: Demolishing all exit poll forecasts, the ruling BJP on Tuesday scored a historic hat trick in Haryana, winning 48 of the state’s 90 Assembly seats. In the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, where Assembly elections were held after a decade, the National Conference and Congress alliance secured 49 out of 90 seats.
While Nayab Singh Saini, the 54-year-old OBC leader who was appointed as Haryana CM just six months ago to replace Manohar Lal Khattar in an unexpected move, is likely to retain his post, NC President Farooq Abdullah announced that his son and party leader Omar Abdullah will be the chief minister, a position he held between 2009 and 2014.
The BJP won a third straight term in Haryana, a feat never achieved by any party since the state was carved out of Punjab in 1966. Saini attributed this success to the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, stating: “I give full credit to Modi ji. With his blessings and under his guidance, the people of Haryana have endorsed the government’s policies.”
The BJP’s triumph in Haryana not only solidifies its presence in the state but also serves as a strategic boost for the party as it prepares for upcoming elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Delhi.
Alongside its allies, the party faces a challenging electoral landscape, and the Haryana results provide a morale boost ahead of these pivotal contests.
Despite the positive outcome, the BJP faced a setback with eight out of ten ministers losing their seats, including Assembly Speaker Gian Chand Gupta.
The Congress party, aiming to capitalise on its previous gains, managed to secure 37 seats, an increase of six from the last election. Despite this growth, the Congress’s efforts to consolidate power were thwarted, as its vote share was nearly identical to that of the BJP, with the BJP capturing 39.94 per cent and Congress at 39.04 percent. The Congress’s significant rise in vote share by 11 per cent signals a potential resurgence, but internal dissent has already emerged.
Additionally, the Jannayak Janta Party, which played a crucial role in the previous Assembly polls, suffered a significant setback, with key leaders Dushyant Chautala and Abhay Singh Chautala losing their seats. The Aam Aadmi Party also struggled to make an impact in the elections. However, the party did achieve an unexpected victory in Jammu and Kashmir, winning the Doda seat. The INLD managed to win just two seats while Independents won three.
Among the prominent candidates who won were Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini (Ladwa), Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda (Garhi Sampla-Kiloi), BJP’s Anil Vij (Ambala Cantt), Shruti Choudhry (Tosham), INLD’s Arjun Chautala (Rania), Aditya Devi Lal (Dabwali), Congress’s Vinesh Phogat (Julana), Aditya Surjewala (Kaithal), Geeta Bhukkal (Jhajjar), BJP’s Arti Singh Rao (Ateli), and Independent candidate Savitri Jindal (Hisar).
Those who lost included INLD’s Abhay Singh Chautala (Ellenabad), JJP’s Dushyant Chautala and Digvijay Chautala (Dabwali), outgoing Assembly Speaker and BJP’s Gian Chand Gupta, Congress’s Brijendra Singh, Aam Aadmi Party’s Anurag Dhanda (Kalayat), BJP’s O.P. Dhankar (Badli), Capt. Abhimanyu (Narnaund), Haryana Lokhit Party’s Gopal Kanda (Sirsa), and Ranjit Chautala, an Independent (Rania).
In a closely contested election, BJP candidate Devender Chatar Bhuj Attri narrowly defeated Congress’s Brijendra Singh by just 32 votes in the Uchana Kalan Assembly seat, marking the lowest margin among the 90 Assembly segments that held polling on October 5. The outgoing MLA from Uchana Kalan, Dushyant Chautala of the Jannayak Janta Party, finished fifth.
In contrast, Congress’s Mamman Khan achieved a significant victory in Ferozepur Jhirka, winning by a commanding margin of 98,441 votes against BJP’s Naseem Ahmed.
Thirteen women candidates have been elected to the 90-member Haryana Assembly. During the 2019 Assembly polls, eight women candidates were elected as MLAs.
Prominent Congress leader Kumari Selja has called for introspection within the party, stating that the high command must assess the reasons behind their disappointing results. She warned that “it will not be business as usual” in Haryana and urged the leadership to identify those responsible for the electoral losses.
The Congress is yet to come to terms with the jolt in Haryana, while jubilant BJP leaders were quick to point toward infighting in the Congress and its treatment of Dalits and backward castes, highlighting its backing of former Chief Minister Bhupinder Hooda instead of Kumari Selja.
Fortunately for the BJP, an unexpected combination of factors seemed to have worked in its favor. At many stages during the campaign, it appeared that the party was on the back foot, as the dominant and powerful community of Jats and the farmers were said to be upset over the farm laws. Also, allegations of sexual harassment by women wrestlers against a BJP MP and the Agniveer recruitment scheme were expected to work against the saffron party and in favor of the Congress.
In Jammu and Kashmir, where elections were held for the first time after the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, the National Conference and Congress alliance won 49 of the 90 seats—ahead of the halfway mark of 46. The BJP bagged 29 seats—almost all of them in Jammu.
The National Conference (NC), Jammu and Kashmir’s oldest regional party, emerged as the clear frontrunner, capturing 42 seats. The National Conference performed stellar not only in the Kashmir Valley but also in the Pir Panjal and Chenab valleys. Although falling six seats short of an outright majority, the NC’s strong performance positions it favourably to lead the government. Omar Abdullah, NC vice president and a likely candidate for Chief Minister, won in both Budgam and Ganderbal, expressing gratitude to voters for their support.
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] maintained its presence by securing the single seat allotted under the seat-sharing agreement. In contrast, the Congress party managed to win six seats, with five of those victories concentrated in the Kashmir Valley. However, the Congress faced a significant setback in the Jammu region, winning only one seat and marking a troubling decline for the party.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made notable strides, increasing its tally to 29 seats—the party’s best performance in Jammu and Kashmir to date, up from 25 seats in the 2014 elections. Despite the defeat of J&K BJP president Ravindra Raina, the party’s vote share rose modestly from 23 per cent in 2014 to 25.64 per cent this year. Political analysts suggest that the BJP’s gains are largely attributable to the recent delimitation of Assembly seats, which split several of the party’s strongholds into smaller constituencies, such as Kishtwar and Nagrota.
The NC also enjoyed an increase in its vote share, rising from 20.77 per cent in 2014 to 23.43 per cent in this election cycle. Conversely, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) suffered significant losses, securing only three seats compared to 28 in 2014, with its vote share plummeting from 22.67 per cent to 8.87 percent. The Congress also saw its vote share decline from 18 per cent to approximately 12 percent.
Among the 90 successful candidates, only three women were elected: Sakina Masood and Shamima Firdous from the NC, and Shagun Parihar from the BJP. Veteran NC leaders Abdul Rahim Rather and Ali Mohammad Sagar have each won their seats for the seventh consecutive term.
Key winners include Omar Abdullah, J&K Congress president Tariq Hamid Karra, PDP youth president Waheed Para, and BJP leader Devender Rana. Notable losers include former Deputy Chief Minister Muzaffar Hussain Baig (Independent) and Congress leader Tara Chand.
PDP president Mehbooba Mufti’s daughter Iltiza Mufti lost from the family stronghold of Bijbehara. J&K’s smaller parties and Independents, many of them backed by the BJP, won nine seats.
Mehbooba Mufti congratulated the NC-Congress alliance, urging the central government to respect the new administration’s autonomy. Meanwhile, CPI(M) candidate Mohamad Yousuf Tarigami secured his fifth consecutive win from the Kulgam seat, defeating
former Jamaat-e-Islami member Sayar Ahmad Reshi by
over 7,800 votes. Tarigami attributed his victory to public discontent with the central government’s policies.
