El Niño Effect: Dry, snowless winter grips NW Himalayas

New Delhi: The majestic Himalayas, usually adorned with a pristine blanket of snow, are facing an unprecedented challenge this winter. The El Niño effect, coupled with a long dry spell, has resulted in scant snowfall across the northwest region, raising concerns about the future of water resources and the delicate northwest Himalayan ecosystem.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared 2023 the hottest year on record, and the warming El Niño event promises to crank up the heat further in 2024. This phenomenon arises from warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, coupled with weakened trade winds.

The lack of snowfall isn’t a mere blip; it disrupts the delicate annual snow cycle. “If it continues,” warns glaciologist and Himalayan researcher A N Dimri, “it can have a huge cascading effect on socio-economic benefits. Less snow means less water replenishment, impacting agriculture, health, and ultimately, the economy.”

The Border Roads Organisation (BRO), usually battling blizzards to keep the strategically important 11,800-feet Zojila Pass open, finds itself with an unexpectedly easy task this year. “Zojila connects Kashmir with Ladakh, crucial for supplying troops,” explains Lt Gen Rajeev Chaudhry, former BRO director general. “It usually has 30-40 feet of snow by now, but barely six-seven feet this year. Less snow might keep the pass open for another week,” says Chaudhry.

The picture is bleak in Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand as well. Popular tourist destinations like Gulmarg and Pahalgam have received almost no snow, disappointing both tourists and locals. Amateur meteorologist ‘Weatherman Shubham’ posted a photo of the snowless Kedarnath temple on social media, lamenting the “bizarre dry winters” due to the prolonged dry spell.

This unusually long dry spell has left places that should be blanketed in four-to-six feet of snow with barely a trace. After initial snowfall in November and December, precipitation has vanished altogether. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) blames the absence of Western Disturbances (WDs), predicting no major snowfall till mid-January.

WDs, cyclonic storms originating in the Mediterranean, are crucial for Himalayan snowfall. An April 2015 study in the Review of Geophysics highlights their role in establishing and sustaining the regional snowpack, replenishing water resources. Spring melt from this snowpack feeds northern Indian rivers and plays a vital role in various hydrological processes.

Climate scientist Raghu Murtugudde from the Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay connects the dots between WDs and El Niño. “WDs have been declining for a while, so the

low precipitation aligns with that trend,” he explains. “During El Nino, cold winds from the northwest keep temperatures high over northern and north-central India, leading to dry winds and less precipitation,” says Murtugudde.

He elaborates on the “trend,” stating, “WDs have been bringing less precipitation for a couple of decades, meaning more years with below-normal snowfall. El Nino just amplifies this effect.”

Glaciologist Dimri, noting a distinct pattern shift in WDs, concurs, “There’s been a decrease in their number, precipitation, and most importantly, a shift from solid to liquid precipitation, with rain replacing snowfall in winters.”

The consequences of this disrupted cycle are dire. “The water system will collapse. We’re moving towards a drier future,” warns Dimri.

On average, India receives four to six intense WDs between December and March. With December witnessing none and no sign of them till mid-January, the situation is alarming.

Adding to the concern is the unusual nature of this El Niño event. “It’s different this year due to a strong superimposition of El Nino and global warming. his happened back in 2009, another dry year,” says Murtugudde.

Murtugudde co-authored a 2012 study demonstrating the link between unprecedented basin-wide warming in the Tropical Pacific and global warming trends.

The Himalayas, usually adorned with a glistening winter crown, now stand bare and parched.