Close contest on cards in Maharashtra and Jharkhand

NEW DELHI: As polling concluded in the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand on Wednesday, several exit polls predicted a close contest between the BJP-led alliance and the Congress-led INDIA bloc, the two major political opponents. While some exit polls predicted an edge for the BJP-led alliances in both states, others gave a slight advantage to the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition in the crucial state of Maharashtra.

Maharashtra—India’s most financially significant state—has left pollsters in confusion. Out of nine exit polls, three predicted a hung Assembly, four leaned toward the ruling alliance, and two hedged their bets.

In Jharkhand, where a clear outcome was widely anticipated, poll analysts remained divided. Three suggested that the ruling JMM-led alliance would retain the state, while three others opined that the NDA might snatch victory from the INDIA bloc.

The aggregate of nine exit polls indicates an NDA victory in Maharashtra, while the data shows a close fight in Jharkhand.

The ruling Mahayuti alliance, comprising Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party, and the BJP, is projected to win 150 seats in Maharashtra. The MVA, the coalition of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, and the Congress, is likely to secure 125 seats. The majority mark in the 288-member Assembly stands at 145.

In Jharkhand, currently governed by the alliance of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Congress, the NDA is expected to fall marginally short of the majority figure of 41, ending with 39 seats. The INDIA bloc is predicted to be close behind with 38 seats, based on the aggregate of eight exit polls.

However, the recent Haryana election results cast doubt on the accuracy of exit polls. Predictions of a Congress victory were upended when the BJP retained power for a third consecutive term.Maharashtra’s political landscape has undergone significant changes over the past two years due to splits in two major parties—Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party. This political churn has made the Assembly elections in this critical western state particularly complex.

In Jharkhand, Axis MyIndia was the sole pollster to predict a victory for the Congress-JMM alliance, projecting 53 seats out of 81 for the coalition, compared to 25 for the BJP-led NDA and three for others.

For the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, the majority mark is 145, while for the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly, it is 41. The counting of votes is scheduled for November 23 for the single-phase election in Maharashtra and the two-phase polling in Jharkhand, held on November 13 and 20.

The Matrize exit poll, conducted in collaboration with various news organisations, forecasted 150–170 seats for the BJP and allies in Maharashtra with a 48 per cent vote share, while predicting 110–130 seats for the Congress and its allies, with a 42 per cent vote share. Others were projected to win 8–10 seats, accounting for 10 per cent of the vote.

In Jharkhand, Matrize predicted 42–47 seats for the NDA, 25–30 seats for the INDIA bloc, and 0–4 seats for others.

The People’s Pulse exit poll gave the NDA’s Mahayuti a commanding 175–195 seats in Maharashtra, while allotting 85–112 seats to the MVA and 7–12 to others. In Jharkhand, it forecasted 44–53 seats for the NDA, 25–37 for the INDIA bloc, and 5–9 for others.By contrast, Electoral Edge predicted 150 seats for the MVA, 121 seats for the BJP-led Mahayuti, and 20 seats for others in Maharashtra.Poll Diary predicted 122–186 seats for the NDA, 69–121 for the MVA, and 12–29 seats for others in Maharashtra. Chanakya Strategies forecasted 152–160 seats for the Mahayuti, 130–138 for the MVA, and 6–8 seats for others.

Lokshahi Rudra suggested a close fight in Maharashtra, predicting 128–142 seats for the Mahayuti, 125–140 for the MVA, and 18–23 seats for others.

Some exit polls also projected BJP victories in 5–7 of the nine Assembly bypolls held in Uttar Pradesh.

A survey by Delhi University’s Centre for Global Studies (CGS) predicted electoral victories for the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra and the NDA in Jharkhand.

The Election Commission has criticized the methodology used in some exit polls, noting that such predictions have often been significantly off the mark in past elections.