Above-normal rain likely in second half of monsoon
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday projected that the country is likely to see above-normal rainfall during the latter half of the southwest monsoon season, covering August and September.
Addressing an online briefing, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said most regions are expected to experience normal precipitation in August, except for the Northeast and adjoining areas of eastern India. “September rainfall is likely to be above normal,” he stated.
According to Mohapatra, “Overall, above-normal rainfall — 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 422.8 mm — is most likely over the country during the second half of the season.” He added that while most regions should receive normal to above-normal rain, parts of the Northeast, adjoining eastern states, certain central areas, and southwestern sections of the peninsula could see below-normal rainfall.
The forecast follows an active first half of the monsoon from June to July, which brought above-normal precipitation across India, with some states — notably Himachal Pradesh — reporting flash floods. Between June 1 and July 31, the country received 474.3 mm of rain against a normal of 445.8 mm, marking a six per cent surplus.
Despite the surplus, Mohapatra pointed out that India recorded the lowest number of intense rain events in five years, with 624 very heavy rainfall incidents and 76 extremely heavy rainfall incidents. “In Northeast India, this is the fifth consecutive year of below-normal rainfall. Over the last three decades, there has been a noticeable decline in rainfall activity in the region,” he said.
For the next two weeks, the IMD expects subdued rainfall. However, Mohapatra clarified that the conditions do not meet the criteria for a “break monsoon phase,” which is when rainfall pauses as the monsoon trough shifts towards the Himalayan foothills.
Favourable atmospheric patterns influenced July’s active rainfall phase. The IMD attributed this to a positive Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the latter half of the month and the development of six low-pressure systems over a span of 28 days. Four of these intensified into depressions, three of which formed over land before moving from Gangetic West Bengal and the northern Bay of Bengal towards Rajasthan, triggering widespread heavy rainfall events.
The IMD noted that ENSO-neutral conditions are currently in place and are expected to persist until October, after which weak La Niña conditions may emerge during the post-monsoon period.
In its seasonal outlook issued in May, the department had forecast India’s June–September rainfall at 106 per cent of the LPA of 87 cm. The monsoon remains vital for agriculture, which sustains around 42 per cent of the population and contributes significantly to the national economy, while also replenishing water reservoirs and aiding power generation.
