TMC eyes 50% vote share in 2026 Bengal elections

Kolkata: In the wake of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the Trinamool Congress (TMC) managed to increase its vote share compared to the 2019 Parliamentary polls, there is a growing confidence within the party regarding the 2026 state elections in Bengal.

TMC members believe that this upward trend would enable them to increase the party’s vote share to 50 per cent in 2026.

The ruling party of Bengal is learnt to have sought reports from its block-level organisation as part of its autopsy of results in certain seats where it lost to the BJP. At the same time, it has been keeping an eye on its increased vote margin.

On Monday, Trinamool member Debangshu Bhattacharya, who was also the candidate for Tamluk Lok Sabha seat but lost to BJP’s Abhijit Gangopadhyay, took to his social media handle and wrote that as per the apparent trend, compared to every Lok Sabha election, TMC gets a major increment in vote share in the very next Assembly polls.

Bhattacharya cited statistics which claimed that in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls TMC’s vote share was 31 per cent while in Assembly polls in 2011 it was 38 per cent.

It was a jump of seven per cent. Again in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the vote share was 39 per cent while in the next Assembly polls in 2016 it was 45 per cent, which is again a jump of six per cent.

He further cited that in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the vote share was 43 per cent while in the 2021 Assembly polls, it was 48 per cent, a jump of five per cent. Then again in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the vote share was 46 per cent.

Bhattacharya reasoned that this would mean that in all likelihood TMC’s vote share in the upcoming 2026 Assembly elections will be a whopping 50 per cent vote share in Bengal with a jump of four per cent.

He wrote on X: “Trend says, that compared to every Lok Sabha election, AITC gets a major increment in vote share in the very next assembly election. With increasing vote share, the % of jump is consolidating from 7% to 6% to 5%.

If we consider the trend of the last 15 years as constant, mathematically the next jump will be of a minimum 4%. So, as the trend continues, in 2026, AITC is all set to touch 46+4, a whopping 50% vote

share in Bengal.”