TMC boosts vote share to over 45% in 2024, achieves 2% swing from 2019

Kolkata: Trinamool Congress (TMC) registered a 45.77 per cent vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Bengal, up by over two per cent from the 43.7 per cent of votes it received in the 2019 Parliamentary elections.

The Mamata Banerjee ‘magic’ worked yet again for the TMC as the party romped home with 29 of the 42 Parliamentary constituencies in Bengal, reducing the BJP to 12, six seats less than its previous count, and restricting the saffron camp to less than 39 per cent votes.

Although Banerjee attributed the win to the people of the state and called the results “people’s rejection of those opposed to Bengal”, there’s little doubt that the leader’s political charisma, her street-fighter image and feisty opposition to the BJP worked wonders behind the retention of her followers’ trust that allowed her to nearly replicate the TMC’s 2021 state election performance despite the palpable anti-incumbency.

For Banerjee, Sandeshkhali remained a sore point not just because of the foothold the BJP managed to gain in the area but perhaps more because it dented her image as a protector of farmers against land sharks who enjoy the patronage of the ruling dispensation.

By comprehensively winning the Basirhat seat, which encapsulates Sandeshkhali, Banerjee is firmly positioned to claim vindication of her stand that the developments in the delta were no more than an aberration in the larger scheme of politics in Bengal.

Meanwhile, going by poll statistics, though the TMC’s vote percentage improved from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it declined compared to the 2021 Assembly elections.

TMC bagged seven more seats this year compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha results when they won 22 seats.

The ruling party in Bengal registered significant improvement in vote share from 43.7 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls to 45.77 in 2024.

This figure is, however, lower than the 48.02 per cent, TMC had got in the 2021 Assembly elections. The BJP’s vote share in the state this time stands at 38.73 per cent which shows a marginal improvement from the figure of 38.15 per cent in the 2021 Assembly elections. This time the BJP’s vote share declined from what it was in 2019. It marginally improved from what it was in 2021.

The figure for 2024 for the BJP is significantly down from 40.7 per cent in 2019 when the saffron camp achieved its best-ever electoral performance in Bengal by winning 18 seats.

The negative swing in the saffron camp cost the party nearly six seats compared with its previous tally of 18 seats. For a party that officially aimed at winning at least 30 seats in the state, the loss is significant.

Congress-Left Front alliance’s vote share also declined in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections compared to the figure they had received in 2019.

However, the Congress- Left Front alliance’s vote share this year increased to 10.35 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha compared to 7.66 in the 2021 Assembly elections. Left-Congress’ vote share in 2024 declined from what remained at 12 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Minority votes also played a crucial part in TMC’s poll victory. Several Parliamentary seats in both north and south Bengal, such as Raiganj, Cooch Behar, Balurghat, Malda North, Malda South, Murshidabad, Diamond Harbour, Uluberia, Howrah, Birbhum, Kanthi, Tamluk, Mathurapur and Joynagar, have significant Muslim populations.