LS polls: BJP banks on ‘anti-incumbency’ to increase its vote share in state

Kolkata: Even as the Trinamool Congress (TMC) seems confident that it will easily bag more than 30 seats in this Lok Sabha election, the growth of the BJP in Bengal since 2019 Parliamentary polls paints a different picture, one which speaks of a probability of rise in vote share for the saffron brigade, riding on an alleged anti-incumbency wave in the state.

The battle lines have been drawn and it is just a matter of time before voters cast their votes. For Bengal, this Lok Sabha election will not be just another power tussle but an indication of the direction towards which its politics will steer itself in the coming days. Bengal politics, as apparent, has no room for complacency if history is something to go by. The 34 year Left-Front rule in the state had ended even though its leaders were confident that it was too big a mountain to be moved. One factor was the anti-incumbency which was heavily banked upon by Trinamool Congress’ Mamata Banerjee to dislodge the communists from the state’s seat of power.

Since 2011, much water has flown below the Howrah Bridge. What was barely a possibility for the BJP in Bengal became a reality in 2019 Lok Sabha elections when it bagged 18 seats from mere two in 2014 Parliamentary polls. Although, the CPI(M) alleged it was because the TMC paved the way for the rise of the BJP in Bengal which never was a possibility during the communist rule, Trinamool alleged that it was made possible due to the shifting of Left votes to BJP.

Political commentators are of the opinion that more than increasing seats, the BJP is seeking to increase its vote share. The challenge, however, will be to hold on to the seats it secured in 2019 but this may not be difficult in the wake of corruption allegations that have surfaced against the Trinamool since 2021 Assembly polls where it dealt the BJP a crushing defeat.

The saffron brigade members feel that since 2021 Bengal politics underwent a paradigm shift as never before in this state were so many ruling party members, including Cabinet ministers, went to jail for corruption. It believes that an alleged anti-incumbency against the state government will be a big factor in this election which may just open the gates for the BJP to grab Nabanna (state secretariat) in the next state elections (2026).