Bangladesh back on track

Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League have for now won the battle between the liberal-secular forces and the communal-fundamentalist forces represented by the Opposition, says Barun Das Gupta

There has been an unusual lull in Bangladesh after the elections and after Sheikh Hasina was sworn in as Prime Minister for the second time in succession. The BNP-Jamaat led Opposition, which had boycotted the 5 January, threatened not to recognise the new Government as a legitimate one and to carry on their agitation till fresh elections were held. Hasina’s response was that the elections were perfectly valid and her government would last its full term of five years.

Hasina and the Awami League, it would appear, have won the battle between the liberal-secular forces and the communal-fundamentalist forces represented by the Opposition. This is the essence of the Awami League victory. Hasina has won the first round of the battle. But many more battles lie ahead. The fundamentalist conservative forces may be down but they are not out.

The Opposition which had completely paralysed life in Bangladesh by organizing one general strike after another for 85 days and unleashing widespread violence throughout the country, is now quite subdued. Even the Western Powers, which were earlier talking about cutting aid and imposing economic sanctions if fresh elections were not held, and she seemed to be reconciling themselves to the reality. BNP leader Khaleda Zia dubbed the new government ‘unconstitutional’ but in the same breath, urged Hasina to renew talks for forming a ‘democratic’ government. Hasina’s curt reply was that if the BNP-Jamaat wanted to do politics in Bangladesh, they would have to stop ‘militant and terrorist’ activities.

The Jamaat leaders are, however, confident that the BNP would not be able to sever its ties with them because that will make the BNP very unpopular.  The BNP, they maintain, is in no position to dissolve the alliance because without the Jamaat support the BNP cannot win its political battles. ‘The BNP is dependent on the support of the Jamaat and the Islamic Chhatra Shibir (student wing of the Jamaat)’, said a Jamaat spokesman. ‘Without our help the BNP just does not have the numerical strength to organize demonstrations and hold rallies on its own.’

This, indeed, is the reality. Without the support of the Jamaat, the BNP is likely to lose its political ‘muscle’. But the far bigger question for them is, after failing to prevent either the holding of the elections or the Hasina Government’s coming to power for the second time in succession, how are they going to keep themselves politically relevant and hold their supporters together. Any attempt to unleash fresh violence or disrupt normal life would be dealt with a heavy hand by Hasina, strengthened by her electoral victory.

The outcome of the Bangladesh elections has given India immense relief. If the communal-fundamentalist and terrorist forces had won, it would have posed an immediate threat to India. The conviction of those responsible for the 2004 attempted smuggling of ten truckloads of arms and ammunition to the secessionist groups of the north-east region would not have been possible with a BNP-Jamaat Government in power. A Special Court in Chittagong on Thursday sentenced to death 14 persons for their involvement in the conspiracy. The accused included several former ministers, bureaucrats and senior intelligence officers of the erstwhile Khaleda Zia Government.

Paresh Barua, the self-styled commander-in-chief of the outlawed ULFA, has been sentenced to death in absentia. Barua, now believed to be hiding in north Myanmar, has refused to join the peace talks now being carried on with New Delhi by the political leadership of the outfit, led by its chairman 

Arabinda Rajkhowa. Barua, with his fast dwindling number of supporters, has continued to commit stray murders and carry out occasional explosions to prove that he is still alive and kicking. But his supporters are becoming restive and deserting him. A thoroughly frustrated Barua has now started murdering the dissidents in his own camp. Recently seven ULFA cadres were executed in Myanmar under his orders.

It may be recalled that on 1 April 2004, the Bangladesh police, in course of routine searches at the jetty of the Chittagong Urea Fertilizers Ltd. at Chittagong, had stumbled upon ten truckloads of arms and ammunition including rockets and rocket launchers, obviously unaware of the political ramifications of their find and the big fish involved in this massive arms smuggling. 

Later it transpired that this huge consignment of arms was meant for the ULFA and its allies in the north-east India. By then the whole thing had blown up to become such a big sensation in both Bangladesh and India that even for the Khaleda Zia Government it was not possible to suppress it or to play it down, even if they had actually connived at it officially.

The Daily Star of Dhaka reported on 30 January that investigations in 2009 (when Hasina had come to power) revealed that the ISI of Pakistan was involved in the conspiracy, as was Wing Commander Shahab Uddin Ahmed, the then Director of National Security Intelligence (NSI). The latter is one of those found guilty and awarded the death sentence.