Allies in a Flux

December 4 and 5 mark the latest chapter in the Indo-Russian relationship, with the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s State Visit to India, which has been shaped by decades of close coordination in defence, nuclear, and energy sectors. President Putin’s visit coincides with the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit. This also marks the 25 years of the “Strategic Partnership,” entered in 2000, which was later upgraded to a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” in 2010, reflecting their deepening collaboration. Before President Putin’s visit, the Russian Parliament (Duma) had ratified the India-Russia Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS) — a key defence pact that was signed on February 18, 2025, in Moscow. Another strategic partnership between Russia and India is the Chennai-Vladivostok eastern maritime corridor (EMC), started on September 4, 2019, with the signing of a Memorandum of Intent (MoI) in Vladivostok between the Indian Ministry of Ports, Shipping, and Waterways and the Russian Ministry of Transport to enhance maritime connectivity between Chennai port and Vladivostok port. It has emerged as a strategic sea link connecting ports on India’s East Coast and Russia’s Far East. Data show a significant increase in cargo volumes on the EMC, with coal shipments rising by 87 per cent and crude oil transport growing by 48 per cent year-on-year in FY 2024–25. The distance between Mumbai port and the Russian port of St Petersburg, via the Suez Canal, is 8,675 nautical miles (16,066 km). In comparison, the distance from Chennai port to Vladivostok port, via the EMC, is shorter at 5,647 nautical miles (10,458 km). As the much hyped India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is in limbo due to political instability in the Middle East, EMC is gaining importance.

Historical ties

India and Russia share a long history of Silk Route connections, trade, and cultural exchanges that span both the pre-independence and post-independence periods. Trade between these two major civilisations of the Eurasian grassland dates back to the 3rd century BC. Bahn, Paul G. (2000), in his book, The Atlas of World Geology, mentions that goods uncovered from archaeological sites such as Pazyryk indicate that nomads inhabiting the area conducted trading activities with India during the 4th-3rd century BCE. Rubchenko, Maxim (September 9, 2016), “Russia and India: A civilizational friendship- Russia Beyond”, writes about Athanasius Nikitin’s Journey Beyond Three Seas — the story told by a Russian merchant about his three-year journey across India in the 15th century. In 1696, Aurangzeb received Semyon Malenkiy and allowed him to conduct free trade. After staying for six years in India and visiting Surat, Burhanpur, Agra, Delhi, and other cities, Russian merchants returned to Moscow with valuable Indian goods.

On August 9, 1971, the Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation between the Government of India and the Government of USSR was signed. According to political analysts, it was diplomatically and strategically among the most significant documents signed by India after Independence. This treaty had a significant impact on the geostrategic situation of the Indian sub-continent. Armed with Russian weapons, India defeated Pakistan in the 1971 war, which disintegrated Pakistan and paved the way for the creation of Bangladesh. Article IX of the 1971 treaty stated that each party would not assist any third party in armed conflict with the other, and that they would immediately consult each other if either faced an attack or threat.

It is observed that Article IX of the Sino-Russian treaty of friendship of 2001 is almost identical to Article IX of the Indo-Soviet treaty of 1971. Article 9 of the treaty states: “When a situation arises in which one of the contracting parties deems that peace is being threatened and undermined or its security interests are involved or when it is confronted with the threat of aggression, the contracting parties shall immediately hold contacts and consultations to eliminate such threats.” The article spells out the hypothetical scenarios or situations under which China and Russia should “immediately hold contacts and consultations”, and the objective of doing so - that is, to “eliminate such threats.” The two countries recently decided to extend the treaty by five years.

Alliance of Eurasian civilisations

These three nations are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) — a major Eurasian political, economic, and security alliance focused on regional stability, counter-terrorism, and cooperation, involving members like China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, and a few other Central Asian states.

India, Russia and China are also the founding members of BRICS, a forum for cooperation among ten leading emerging economies: Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, the Russian Federation, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates, which has emerged as a major challenger to the US hegemony.

During the 25th SCO Summit, held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025, PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first meeting on Chinese soil in seven years. The smiling photograph of the three leaders — Modi, Xi, and Putin of the Eurasian region, which epitomises the epicentre of the ancient civilisations and the ‘old world’, has sent a strong signal to the ‘new world’ led by the USA. In the Summit, the PM proposed commencing a Civilizational Dialogue Forum within the group to foster greater people-to-people ties and cultural understanding.

The Tianjin SCO Summit projected Eurasia’s ancient civilisations as a united force, reshaping geopolitics against US dominance and Western hegemony. Unlike the Cold War of the last century, which was fought between two blocs representing two different political philosophies, the Cold War of the 21st century will most likely be fought between countries belonging to the ancient and new civilisations.

Partnership since 1991

After the breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991, India signed a treaty of friendship and cooperation with Russia in 1993, but with the omission of Article IX of the 1971 treaty, it was very different, and gradually, the nature of India-Russia ties has become radically different. Since then, Indo-Russian ties have primarily focused on defence deals.

In the 1990s, the Indian Navy acquired Russian-origin submarines, warships, and naval hardware, helping sustain its blue-water capabilities. In 1996, India signed a deal with Russia for 50 Su-30MKI fighters, leading to the delivery of the first batch by 1997. Later, a deal was framed for the licensed production of 140 additional Su-30MKI jets at India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, ensuring a sustained supply and domestic manufacturing base. The BrahMos missile, developed under a joint India-Russia venture, has been one of the central pillars of modern bilateral defence cooperation. As of 2018, roughly 65 per cent of components were being domestically manufactured, with plans for higher localisation. India acquired Russian-origin T-90 main battle tanks under major deals, significantly boosting land warfare capabilities.

In October 2018, India signed a USD 5.43 billion deal for five S-400 surface-to-air missile systems from Russia. This deal is widely regarded as one of India’s largest post-Cold War defence procurements. Defence cooperation between India and Russia is institutionalised under the Inter-Governmental Commission on Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-MTC), established in 2000. In 2021, both countries renewed the framework with a 2021–2031 agreement to continue supply, co-development, repairs, and after-sales support, underlining long-term commitment.

Between 2000 and 2020, Russia emerged as India’s principal defence supplier, accounting for roughly 66.5 per cent of India’s total arms imports. This dominance was not driven by isolated, high-value contracts but by sustained dependence across air, land and naval platforms. During the 2011–2021 decade alone, Russian arms transfers to India were valued at about USD 22.8 billion, reflecting a steady supply of aircraft, missiles, tanks, naval systems and associated support equipment that underpinned India’s long-term military modernisation.

Outbreak of the Ukraine conflict marked a turning point in the broader economic relationship. Since 2022, India–Russia trade has expanded sharply, rising from around USD 10 billion to nearly USD 69 billion, largely fuelled by India’s imports of discounted Russian crude oil. According to India’s commerce ministry data, the value of crude imports from Russia fell by 38 per cent year-on-year to USD 3.55 billion in October 2025, down from a record USD 5.8 billion a year earlier. Despite this decline, Russia still accounts for just over 30 per cent of India’s total oil imports by both value and volume.

Overall bilateral trade reached a record USD 68.7 billion in FY2024–25. Indian exports, mainly pharmaceuticals, chemicals, iron and steel, and marine products, stood at USD 4.9 billion, while imports from Russia—primarily crude oil, fertilisers, coal and precious metals—totalled USD 63.8 billion. Investment ties remain strong, with a joint target of USD 50 billion by 2025 and bilateral trade projected to reach USD 100 billion by 2030.

In 2024, the Russian Federation contributed 10.22 per cent of India’s total imports (compared to 18.52 per cent from China). But India’s export to the Russian Federation was only 1.11 per cent of India’s total exports (compared to 18.29 per cent to the USA and 17.8 per cent to the EU). With the Russian Federation, India runs a mammoth trade deficit of USD 60 billion.

Modi-Putin Summit

Putin offered India uninterrupted fuel supplies as he and Modi agreed to expand trade and defence ties between the countries, with decades-old ties. They unveiled a five-year plan to bolster economic and trade partnerships in the face of Washington’s punitive tariff and sanctions regime. It may be recalled that Trump, in August imposed an additional 25 per cent import tariff on India over its purchase of cheap Russian oil, arguing it was undermining US sanctions and helping Putin bankroll the invasion of Ukraine. In addition to the 2030 economic programme, the two sides also signed multiple agreements to expand cooperation in several sectors, including health, mobility and people-to-people exchange. The two sides confirmed their intention to broaden cooperation in nuclear energy, including fuel cycle, life cycle support for operating the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant of Tamil Nadu, and non-power applications.

India and Russia agreed to continue working towards enhancing trade in national currencies. In trade, Russia enjoys a huge trade surplus with India. Russia’s Sberbank has launched the Nifty 50 Mutual Fund, giving Russian investors direct exposure to Indian equity markets by reinvesting rupee surplus in India. Instead of leaving the rupee reserves idle, Russia is channelling them back into Indian financial markets through investment products like the newly launched Nifty 50-based mutual fund.

The most noteworthy development during the Summit was the signing of two agreements that would enhance the mobility of Indian semi-skilled and skilled workers to Russia in the coming years. Moscow needs 5,00,000 semi-skilled workers. As more than 2.04 lakh private companies have shut down over the past five years, due to premature deindustrialisation and rising import dependence on China in a free trade regime, semi-skilled and unskilled labourers are the most competitive exports of India.

The Modi-Putin Summit was a tightrope walk for India. The impact of the Summit on India’s trade relations with the USA and the European Union – the two major export destinations for Indian goods and services- will be felt in the coming months. Till then, advantage Putin.