Inside Iran’s Deepening Crisis

Since December 2025, civilian protests have paralysed the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is still reeling from a 12-day war launched by Israel last June that saw the United States bomb nuclear sites in Iran. Economic pressure, which has intensified since September when the United Nations re-imposed sanctions on the country over its atomic program, has sent Iran’s rial currency into a free fall, sliding to a new low at 1.47 million rials per USD. More than 2,000 people have been killed during the violent crackdown by security forces on protests in Iran. An Iranian official also told Reuters that 2,000 people had been killed but that "terrorists" were to blame. President Trump promised Iranians that help was "on its way”. Earlier on Tuesday, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that Iranian authorities would "pay a big price" for the killings, and urged people to "keep protesting”. “I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!" he added, using the acronym for a US-based Iranian opposition slogan, "Make Iran Great Again".

Since the early 1950s, the USA has been playing a dirty game with Iran to retain its hegemonic control over its vast oil and gas. The game is very simple: cripple the Iranian economy by applying sanctions so that the citizens suffer from deteriorating living conditions. When they hit the street in protest, the USA and its allies instigate them to ‘keep protesting’ with the promise of dispatching help – economic and military, to ‘Make Iran Great Again’! Please refer to Box 1 for a brief timeline of US sanctions that have crippled Iran over the last seven decades. Due to harsh US sanctions, according to World Bank data, Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita fell from more than USD 8,000 in 2012 to about USD 6,000 by 2017, and to a little above USD 5,000 in 2024.

Genesis of the present crisis

In December, Iran introduced a new pricing tier for its nationally subsidised gasoline, raising the price of some of the world’s cheapest gas. After Iran’s Central Bank ended a preferential, subsidised dollar-rial exchange rate for all products except medicine and wheat, food prices skyrocketed. Prices are up on meat, rice and other staples of the Iranian dinner table. The nation has been struggling with an annual inflation rate of some 40 per cent. The protest started from Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on December 28, 2025, after the rial plunged to a record low against the US dollar — a sharp decline from about 7,00,000 in January 2025 and approximately 9,00,000 in mid-2025 to over 1.4 million now. The plummeting currency has triggered steep inflation, with food prices 72 per cent higher than last year on average. Shopkeepers shuttered their businesses to rally against rising prices in Iran. The protests have since spread to other provinces and have snowballed, spreading rapidly across all 31 provinces of Iran. Initially, the protests remained focused on economic issues, which eventually turned political as anger had been simmering over the years after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody, which triggered nationwide demonstrations. It may be recalled that Jina Mahsa was arrested and forced into a van by Iran’s “morality police” in Tehran on 13 September 2022 for alleged non-observance of Iran’s law on mandatory veiling. She died in custody on 16 September. Her death sparked a wave of protests throughout the country.

In 2009, a citizens’ protest in Iran was put under control due to the absence of any credible political dealership. The protests continued until 2010, and were titled the Iranian Green Movement by their proponents, reflecting their campaign theme: Persian Awakening or Green Movement. Although the movement did incorporate religious iconography and vocabulary, these elements became free of their initial religious significance when demonstrators used them in a newly defined context and political environment. The Green Movement was, to a considerable extent, a movement of a subaltern group, Tehran’s middle class, which from time to time has asserted itself in spectacular ways.

The present protest, as in the past, also failed to project any viable alternative to the regime. The series of uprisings in Iran during the last few years indicate that the problem on the Iranian street is not a shortage of bravery, but rather, the absence of a unified opposition, one that serves the public interest and offers a credible path out of theocracy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ militarised dominance to democratize Iran, rather than simply liberalise the country. The opposition has failed the most basic test of readiness: It has not been able to establish a credible government-in-exile, an interim structure capable of practising governance, enforcing internal discipline, and modelling cooperation, observes the Middle-East Forum.

Iran is no longer alone

Though Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” (Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group in Lebanon, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis, and Syrian President Bashar Assad), which grew in prominence in the years after the 2003 US-led invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq, is reeling, China and Russia are two major allies of Iran. Iran is also a member of BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). As western sanctions have jeopardised Iran and Russia's ability to ship oil and receive payments, the two oil-exporting countries, Iran and Russia, have redirected oil shipments to China—the world’s largest importer of crude oil. In 2023, China saved a reported 10 billion dollars by purchasing crude oil from sanctioned countries such as Iran and Russia. Iran, Russia, and China have created an alternative market of sanctioned oil, wherein payments are denominated in Chinese currency. This oil is often carried by “dark fleet” tankers that operate outside of maritime regulations and take steps to obscure their operations.

As part of its efforts to deepen its strategic and economic heft in the Middle East, China backed Iran against US sanctions. In 2021, they signed a 25-year cooperation deal. Now China buys 90 per cent of Iran’s crude oil, paying in local currencies, which is roughly 13.6 per cent of China’s crude purchases. Around 65 per cent of the total crude and condensate shipped through the Strait of Hormuz off Iran is destined for China. In addition to this, China has made substantial investments to improve Iran’s railway system to develop Tehran as a logistics hub of its new Silk Road for Europe and the MENA region.

Unlike the Taliban of Afghanistan, Iran's theocratic government, despite severe sanctions, remained focused on scientific education and granted greater, though still restricted, liberty to women. Iran's achievements in the civilian nuclear program, defence technology, and presence of large numbers of women in the schools, universities and research organisations, despite strict economic sanctions, are comparable to any developed nation of the West. Before the US attack in June, Iran had been enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels, making it the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so. The IAEA’s director-general has warned that Iran could build as many as 10 nuclear bombs should it decide to weaponise its program.

The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) data reveal, in 2023, the literacy rate of female youth (per cent of females ages 15-24) of the Islamic Republic of Iran was 99 per cent compared to 97 per cent in India and 67 per cent (2021) in Pakistan. As per the UN Human Rights Council document (July 2025), women constituted approximately 49 per cent of higher education students in the 2021–2022 academic year, totalling 16,41,426 female students out of 33,42,220. At the University of Tehran, female admissions surpassed males in bachelor's programs for the 2023–2024 academic year.

Significantly, on Wednesday, Trump said he had spoken to “very important sources on the other side”, and he would watch how the crisis developed, although he did not rule out potential US military action. Meanwhile, Iranian ‍Foreign ‍Minister Abbas Araghchi has denied that Tehran plans to execute anti-government protestors, after United States President Donald Trump said he had received assurances that killings of demonstrators in Iran had stopped. Reporting from Washington, DC, Al Jazeera’s Mike Hanna said that the president’s comments on Wednesday signalled a softening of his tone towards Iran.

The USA and Israel might make a grave mistake if they want to capture and erase the Iranian leader as they did in Iran, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, and many other Islamic nations. The global economy, already shattered by Trump’s tariff war, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Venezuelan crisis, is desperately looking for peace and stability. Moreover, the US invasion risks forcing Iran to use one of its most potent weapons, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which could see oil prices spiral and hit major economies. Meanwhile, crude oil prices tumbled more than 3 per cent on Thursday after US President Donald Trump said killings in Iran’s crackdown on protests were stopping, easing fears of a supply shock. The world needs peace, not war!