Feasting on the Fallen

Political violence increased by 25 per cent globally in 2024, compared to 2023, with one in eight people exposed to conflict and 2,23,000 people killed, according to the estimates of a global NGO - Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), which maps conflicts across different regions of the world. The data also suggests that there has been a two-fold increase in global conflicts over the past five years. Trump’s return to power in January 2025 has added unpredictability to an already volatile world. The International Crisis Group - an independent organisation working to prevent wars and shape policies that will build a more peaceful world - has suggested to closely watch in 2025, ten current and potential wars in Syria, Sudan, Ukraine and European Security, Israel-Palestine, Iran vs US and Israel, Haiti, US-Mexico, Myanmar, Korean Peninsula, and China-US. To this, the recent war-like situation in South Asia, primarily between India and Pakistan, should be added.

The Oxford English Dictionary defines “war” as: (i) a state of armed conflict between different countries or different groups within a country; (ii) a state of competition or hostility between different people or groups; or (iii) a sustained campaign against an undesirable situation or activity. During 2024 (January 1 – October 4), the five countries with the most war casualties were: Ukraine (49,881), Palestine (22,386), Myanmar (13,049), Sudan (9,201), and Ethiopia (7,846).

The Global Terrorism Index 2025 highlights that terrorism remains a persistent global threat. The number of countries experiencing at least one terrorist incident increased from 58 to 66 - the most countries affected since 2018. In 2024, more countries deteriorated than improved for the first time in seven years, with 45 countries reporting a higher impact from terrorism, while only 34 showed improvement. Of the 163 countries in the GTI, only 25 have not recorded a single terrorist incident since 2007.

Rise in Military Expenditure

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in its latest Fact Sheet (April 2025) on Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2024, reveals an alarming rise in world military expenditure by 9.4 per cent in real terms to USD 2,718 billion in 2024. This is the highest global military expenditure - the 10th consecutive year of increases - and accounted for 2.5 per cent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024. Average military expenditure as a share of government expenditure rose to 7.1 per cent in 2024, and world military spending per person was the highest since 1990, at USD 334. For the second year in a row, military expenditure increased in all five of the world’s geographical regions, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions across the globe. In the Indian Union Budget 2025–26, the allocation for India’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) represents approximately 13.45 per cent of the total Union Budget. This allocation is the highest among all ministries.

The prolonged Ukraine - Russia conflict has compelled European countries in general, and NATO in particular, to increase their military spending. The SIPRI report reveals that total military spending in Europe rose by 17 per cent to USD 693 billion in 2024. All European countries, except Malta, increased their military spending in 2024. The total military expenditure by NATO members in 2024 amounted to USD 1,506 billion, or 55 per cent of global spending. European NATO members spent USD 454 billion in total. Of the 32 NATO members, 18 spent at least 2.0 per cent of GDP on their militaries in 2024, up from 11 in 2023.

In 2024, the largest military spender was the USA, which accounted for 37 per cent of global military spending. The US budget included USD 48.4 billion in aid for Ukraine, almost three-quarters of Kyiv’s own defence budget of USD 64.8 billion. It was followed by China, Russia, Germany, and India. These five countries together accounted for over 60 per cent of global military spending.

Table 1 reveals that India’s military spending at 2.3 per cent of its GDP is much higher compared to China (1.7 per cent) and Germany (1.9 per cent). During 2015–2024, India’s military spending increased at a modest rate of 42 per cent, compared to China’s 59 per cent increase in military expenditure during the same period. As expected, Russian military spending increased by 100 per cent during 2015–24. Compared to India’s expenditure of USD 86.1 billion, Pakistan - ranked 29th in terms of military expenditure - spent USD 10.2 billion in 2024, which means India spent 8.44 times more than its South Asian neighbour, with which it shares a 3,323-kilometre-long international border.

Global Arms Exports

The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, updated on March 10, 2025, has identified 64 states as exporters of major arms in 2020–24. The five largest exporters of arms during that period- the USA, France, Russia, China, and Germany - accounted for 72 per cent of all arms exports (see Table 2), of which the USA- the top exporter - accounted for 43 per cent of total exports. The top ten arms-exporting countries captured over 90 per cent of global exports. The USA and states in Western Europe together accounted for 73 per cent of all arms exports in 2020–24, compared with 61 per cent in 2015–19. However, the volume of international transfers of major arms in 2020–24 was 0.6 per cent lower than in 2015–19.

While arms exports from Italy, Spain, the USA, France, and South Korea rose between 2015–19 and 2020–24, exports from Russia, China, Germany, the UK, and Israel declined (see Table 2). The USA and states in Western Europe together accounted for 73 per cent of all arms exports in 2020–24, compared with 61 per cent in 2015–19.

The USA supplied major arms to 107 states in 2020–24. Its arms exports grew by 21 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24, with its share of global arms exports rising from 35 per cent to 43 per cent. US arms exports to European states more than trebled (+233 per cent) between 2015–19 and 2020–24. For the first time in two decades (i.e., since 2000–2004), the largest share of US arms exports went to Europe, increasing from 13 per cent in 2015–19 to 35 per cent in 2020–24. Ukraine, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Norway were among the top 10 largest recipients of US arms exports in 2020–24. US arms exports to Ukraine in 2020–24 were mostly in the form of aid, with the majority of the transfers (71 per cent) consisting of second-hand arms taken from stockpiles to ensure quick delivery. States in the Middle East received the second-largest share of US arms exports in 2020–24 (33 per cent), a significantly smaller share than in 2015–19 (49 per cent).

Global Arms Imports

SIPRI has identified 162 states as importers of major arms in 2020–24. The top five arms importers- Ukraine, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan- received 35 per cent of global arms imports during the period (refer to Table 3). The other major importers were Japan (3.9 per cent), Australia (3.5 per cent), Egypt (3.3 per cent), the USA (3.1 per cent), and Kuwait (2.9 per cent). These ten countries accounted for 52 per cent of global arms imports.

Among the top ten arms importers, the USA was the leading supplier to six countries: Ukraine (45 per cent), Qatar (48 per cent), Saudi Arabia (74 per cent), Japan (97 per cent), Australia (81 per cent), and Kuwait (63 per cent). While Russia supplied 36 per cent of India’s imports, China contributed a whopping 81 per cent of Pakistan’s imports. Russia was also the major supplier (72 per cent) of Chinese arms imports.

Another striking feature, revealed in Table 3, is the steep rise in arms imports during 2020–24 compared to 2015–19 in Kuwait (466 per cent), Qatar (127 per cent), Japan (93 per cent), the USA (67 per cent), and Pakistan (61 per cent). The massive rise (2,627 per cent) in Ukrainian imports is understandable due to its involvement in war.

Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW)

The proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) is a major area of concern, as SALW affects the lives of common citizens. The illicit proliferation of SALW can fuel and prolong armed violence, support illegal activities, and enable the emergence of violent groups. Access to illicit SALW contributes to the development of terrorism, organised crime, human trafficking, gender-based violence, and piracy.

A briefing paper titled Human, Economic and Social Costs of Small Arms and Light Weapons Violence: Selected Global Data (June 2024), by the International Action Network on Small Arms (IANSA), highlights the massive global scale and impacts of violence and destabilisation committed with SALW in both conflict and non-conflict settings, including the enormous economic and social costs arising from the illicit circulation, diversion, frequent misuse, and inadequate regulation of such weapons and their ammunition.

In July 2023, the UN Secretary-General reported: “From 2015 to 2021, an estimated 3.1 million people lost their lives as a result of intentional homicides, a shocking figure which dwarfs that of the estimated 700,000 people who died in armed conflicts during the period.” In December 2023, he added: “According to the latest figures, 260,000 people were killed by small arms in 2021 alone, amounting to 45 per cent of all violent deaths.” A large proportion of deaths in armed conflict situations were committed or facilitated through the use of SALW. In addition, from 2015 to 2021, organised crime accounted for around 700,000 deaths. It is assumed that deaths committed and facilitated with SALW, both directly and indirectly over the past decade, amounted to millions of lives lost.

The UNHCR estimated that there were 110 million forcibly displaced people in mid-2023, mostly from just ten countries. The global economic impact of violence increased by 6.9 per cent, or USD 1.1 trillion, between 2008 and 2022. The costs associated with conflict deaths increased by 326 per cent (USD 27.5 billion); costs for refugees and IDPs increased by 177 per cent (USD 295 billion); GDP losses due to conflict increased by 45 per cent (USD 86.6 billion); and costs for military expenditures increased by 12 per cent (USD 835.5 billion).

In addition to conventional war, cyber war across the globe has surged, with geopolitical tensions fuelling targeted assaults across finance, healthcare, and government sectors. According to the 2025 Global Threat Analysis Report by Radware.com, 2024 wasn’t just another year in cybersecurity- it was a battlefield. Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks hit a new high in 2024, with a staggering 550 per cent increase in web-based attacks year-over-year. Some of the most intense attacks peaked at over 16 million requests per second, with an average duration of nearly 10 hours per attack- double the length of those in 2023.

Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) are the backbone of modern applications, but they’re also prime targets for attackers. In 2024, API attacks surged by 41 per cent, with vulnerability exploitation making up one-third of all malicious traffic. The rise of shadow and zombie APIs - undocumented or forgotten endpoints- has created major blind spots for security teams, allowing hackers to exploit business logic flaws.

Threat actors are also using AI to their advantage. Generative AI is powering next-level phishing campaigns and malware development, making social engineering attacks more convincing than ever. Attackers are also leveraging specifically tuned offline AI models to sell as underground services - such as FraudGPT - to automate reconnaissance, exploit vulnerabilities, and evade detection.

Observations

The US Military Industrial Complex (MIC) still dominates the global arms market. It supplied major arms to 107 countries in 2024. The USA emerged as the top supplier to 22 major arms importing countries, namely, Ukraine (45 per cent), Qatar (48 per cent), S Arabia (74 per cent), Japan (97 per cent), Australia (81 per cent), Kuwait (63 per cent), UAE (42 per cent), S Korea (86 per cent), the UK (86 per cent), Poland (45 per cent), Israel (66 per cent), the Netherlands (97 per cent), Norway (91 per cent), Bahrain (97 per cent), Italy (94 per cent), Indonesia (33 per cent), Denmark (79 per cent), Rumania (61 per cent), Morocco (64 per cent), Germany (70 per cent), New Zealand (76 per cent), and Taiwan (98 per cent). Near complete dependence of most of these nations on US military imports has made them a natural ally to the USA even during trade wars. As Ukraine’s dependence on imported US arms were modest at 45 per cent, most of which were second hand materials, its President Volodymyr Zelensky could successfully negotiate with the Trump administration which initially wanted Ukraine to sign on a dotted line.

Ukraine managed to negotiate some more favourable terms out of the United States before signing the long-awaited minerals deal on Wednesday, (April 30), reports CNN. The deal does not call for Kyiv to reimburse the US for the aid it has already received – a key concession from Trump who has long framed the agreement as Ukraine “paying back” the US. Washington initially demanded a USD 500 billion share of Ukraine’s rare earths and other minerals in exchange for the aid it has already provided to Kyiv. When Zelensky rejected that idea, Trump called him “a dictator.”

The agreement that was inked on Wednesday says that future American military assistance to Ukraine will count as part of the US investment into a joint reconstruction investment fund that will be used to pour money into Ukraine’s natural resources. The deal gives the US preferential rights to mineral extraction in Ukraine and states that Kyiv will have the final say in what and where is being mined. Ukraine will also retain the ownership of the subsoil. Zelensky has demonstrated how a small country like Ukraine can tame a giant warmonger!

Views expressed are personal