The Missing Compass?

The Israel-Iran war began on June 13, when Israel targeted Iranian military and nuclear sites, reportedly killing 78 people, including three senior security officials, the country’s top nuclear negotiator, Ali Shamkhani, and causing damage to the Natanz nuclear facility. In response, Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles and drones early Saturday, resulting in at least three fatalities and injuring dozens more. The next day, in a strongly worded statement, the 10-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which India and Iran are also members, said member states had expressed concern and strongly condemned the Israeli strikes on Iran, characterising them as violations of international law and the UN Charter. However, underscoring its own unwillingness to criticise Israel, India issued a separate statement almost concurrently, clarifying that it was not part of the SCO’s decision-making on this matter. The current Indian government is a major ally of Israel and last week India abstained from voting during the United Nations general Assembly (UNGA) resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza, abandoning India’s principled stand against war, against genocide, and for justice. 149 countries voted for the UNGA resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza, while India abstained. As of June 14, Gaza death toll nears 55,300 as Israel continues brutal war on Palestinians. Over 128,400 Palestinians have also been injured in the assault since October 2023.

The Israel-Iran war may continue for a long time, which will have a major impact on global peace and the economy. More than 10,000 Indians (mostly students) are stranded in Iran, and due to the closure of airspace, the security of the stranded Indians has become a major concern. Evacuation through Iran’s land borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkey is also ruled out due to India’s confrontational relations with these countries. In addition to this, the future of the much hyped India Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC), which connects India and Greece via UAE, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, is at risk. The Indian company Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (APEZ) had acquired a majority stake in Israel's Haifa port for a total consideration of $1.18 billion in 2023. As the war intensified, the shares of APEZ dropped around 2 percent on June 18.

India needs an alternative to Haifa to keep the IMEC dream alive. India’s Prime Minister visited Cyprus on his way to Canada to attend the G7 Summit, held from 15-17 June. Though India is not a member of the Group of 7 (G7) – an informal group of the world’s seven developed countries: USA, Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Japan, and Italy — India has been invited, since 2019, to the Outreach session of the G7 Summit. It may be recalled, after Modi got elected for the second time in 2019, India-China relations suddenly turned cold. After the Indian Prime Minister visited the USA in September, India decided to leave China-initiated Regional Cooperation for Economic Partnership (RCEP) in November 2019. The 50th G7 summit was held amidst rising geopolitical tensions, including continued Ukraine–Russia war, escalating tensions in the Middle East in the wake of the strikes between Iran and Israel, as well as a trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The Summit ended in a fiasco as Trump left the Group of Seven summit in Canada a day early due to the situation in the Middle East. According to media reports, the US president had decided not to sign onto a G7 statement calling for de-escalation between Iran and Israel, but later that day, he signed onto a statement which called "Iran as the principal source of regional instability and terror." At the G7, it was Trump against the rest. The divisions within the 'Western family' have been brought out into the open, observed Le Monde. G7 leaders tried to salvage their summit after Trump’s early exit, effectively making it ‘G6’, led by European members. The Indian Prime Minister did not get an opportunity to speak to the US President on the sidelines of the Summit. However, Modi spoke to him over the phone before leaving Canada. Meanwhile, the US President has invited the Pakistan Army Chief at the White House on Wednesday.

Significantly, on June 17, at the China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan on June 17, 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a treaty to elevate ties with Central Asian nations as Beijing looks to further deepen cooperation on trade, energy, and infrastructure with the resource-rich region. Against this background, the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Cyprus needs to be analysed.

Cyprus visit

Cyprus is an island country in the eastern Mediterranean. Though situated in West Asia, its cultural identity and geopolitical orientation are overwhelmingly Southeast European. This strategically important island is located southeast of Greece, south of Turkey, west of Syria and Lebanon, northwest of Israel and Palestine, and north of Egypt. The island was split into two parts by the 1974 Turkish invasion. Since then, the island of Cyprus is practically divided into two, the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north.

The Republic of Cyprus will assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2026, for the second time, 14 years after the first in 2012. In the World Passport Index, Cyprus Passport ranks 7th. A Cyprus citizen can travel visa-free to 175 countries. Between 2014 and 2020, 66 Indians managed to obtain Cyprus passports under the tax haven’s “golden passport” scheme, The Indian Express, in collaboration with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), reported, as part of Cyprus Confidential. Cyprus Confidential is a worldwide offshore probe of 3.6 million documents exposing a trail of companies established in Cyprus as a tax haven by global elites, including Russian oligarchs. Among the 66 Indians who got their “golden passport” is Vinod Adani, Gautam Adani’s elder brother, reports the WIRE.

As Cyprus is set to assume the EU Council presidency next year, it has become a pivotal link in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), said Brahma Chellaney, a noted security analyst. Modi’s visit to Cyprus — the first by any Indian PM in 23 years — saw the two sides discussing efforts to scale up cooperation in defence, security, and connectivity with focus on IMEC. Consignment may avoid Haifa port and sail to Cyprus from Saudi Arabia. Shipping cargo by sea from Jeddah to Limassol, Cyprus, takes roughly 1 day and 17 hours.

As India is actively negotiating with the European Union for an India-EU FTA, Limassol port in Cyprus will be a strategic port for IMEC. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Cyprus is likely to be perceived as a sign of India’s proximity with its regional rivals by Turkey. This assessment of PM Modi’s visit to Cyprus, by security analysts, comes on the back of two broad contexts: Turkey’s backing of Islamabad during the India-Pakistan conflict, and Ankara and Nicosia’s strained relations. It may be mentioned that Turkey is a member of NATO. China also enjoys very cordial relations with Cyprus.

If one analyses the ill-conceived foreign policies of the Modi government, it will indicate the absence of strategic thinking in the policy-making group. A strategic doctrine outlines the overarching principles, policies, and methods a nation or organization employs to achieve its strategic goals, particularly in the context of national security and defence. India's silence when ten million residents of Tehran, the capital of a sovereign nation, are threatened to 'evacuate immediately' by the elected President of the USA and when India abstains from voting for cease fire to save thousands of innocents people from genocide in Gaza, indicates that Modi’s India has become unprincipled, weak and spineless.

The writer is a professor of Business Administration who primarily writes on political economy, global trade, and sustainable development. Views expressed are personal