Echoes of an ebb

On February 1, 2021, a coup d’état in Myanmar began and democratically elected members of the country’s ruling party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), were deposed by the Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw). The acting president, Myint Swe, proclaimed a year-long state of emergency and declared that power be transferred to Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services, Min Aung Hlaing. He also declared the results of the November 2020 general elections invalid.

On February 3, 2021, Win Myint (the elected President) and Aung San Suu Kyi (State Counsellor) were arrested. Currently, Suu Kyi (77) is serving prison sentences totalling 33 years after being convicted in a series of politically tainted prosecutions brought by the military. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military has been accused of indiscriminate killings of civilians as it engages in major offensives to suppress the armed resistance opposed to its takeover of the government. More than 3,100 people have been killed and over 20,000 arrested in the first two years of Coup, reports Al Jazeera.

As the conflict between the military and anti-coup fighters has deepened, with violence in nearly all parts of the country, thousands of helpless citizens, residing in the border regions, are fleeing the nation for safety. Myanmar and north-eastern India have a long and intricate history and share nearly 1,643 kilometres (1,021 miles) of border along Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. As of December 10, about 2,260 refugees have taken shelter in Kamjong district of Manipur, reports The Hindu. Earlier, over 40,000 refugees took shelter in Mizoram, while around 4,000 refugees are said to have entered Manipur. These migrants belong to the Kuki-Chin-Zo ethnic group, and share ethnic ties with the communities in Mizoram and Manipur, reports Financial Express.

Myanmar: a failed state

Following the February 1, 2021 coup, Myanmar has been in turmoil. Political analysts argue that the militarised state is not only fragile or failing, but has failed. Myanmar became the world’s largest producer of opium in 2023. It now produces an estimated 1,080 metric tonnes of opium — essential for producing heroin, higher than Afghanistan, reports Hindustan Times.

In October 2023, the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, calling themselves the Three Brotherhood Alliance, said in a joint statement that they had begun “Operation 1027” in Myanmar’s Shan state. The offensive could become a new major front in the strife-torn Southeast Asian nation.

The World Bank, in its latest country-specific economic report on Myanmar, revealed that the armed conflict between ethnic groups and the military has escalated since October, displacing half a million people. Operations at several border crossings with Thailand and India, which are key trade partners, have been disrupted. According to the report, Myanmar faces economic stagnation, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast to weaken to 1 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March (2023-24) from 4 per cent (2022-23).

Myanmar: a boneyard of democracy

The political history of Myanmar since its independence in 1948 highlights the dominance of the military regime during the last 75 years. In those years of post-colonial history, Myanmar enjoyed only 20 years of democracy/quasi democracy. The Remaining 55 years were ruled by autocratic military rulers pushing the nation towards balkanisation. Here are a few major political chronicles.

v General Aung San, the architect of Myanmar’s independence and the father of detained State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, founded the Burma Defence Army (BDA) with help from Japan in the early 1940s. In March 1945, Aung San and his army — renamed the Burma National Army (BNA) — joined the British side. During the war, Aung San formed a coalition of political parties, called the Anti-Fascist Organisation, which was renamed the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League (AFPFL) after the war. In the election for a constitutional assembly in April 1947, his AFPFL won 196 of 202 seats. In July 1947, Aung San — the architect of independent Burma — was assassinated by rivals under the leadership of U Saw. The country achieved independence in January 1948 under U Nu. After independence was achieved, a constitutional government was formed and U Nu was nominated as the first Prime Minister of Independent Myanmar.

* During 1958–60, a caretaker government under General Ne Win was formed as the civilian government under U Nu could not solve and improve the situation, and rather threatened the national integration of the country, leading to the coup on March 2, 1962, under General Ne Win.

* Thus, Myanmar (Burma) became a military dictatorship (Socialist Republic of the Union of Burma) under the Burma Socialist Programme Party that lasted for 26 years, with the claim to save the country from disintegration.

* During the period of military rule under General Ne Win, the country was shaped into a one-party socialist state under the army-led party called Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) until 1988. The period from 1962 to 1988 can be marked as the era of Ne Win. The first phase was the period of direct military rule from 1962 to 1974 and the second was the constitutional dictatorship phase from 1974 to 1988.

* · The military government called national elections in May 1990, which Suu Kyi’s NLD convincingly won, but the junta refused to hand over control. She was rather arrested. Suu Kyi and her party re-joined the political process, and contested 2012 by-elections where they won 43 of the 45 seats contested. Suu Kyi was sworn in as an MP and leader of the opposition.

* Despite her landslide victory in 2015, the Myanmar constitution forbade her from becoming president because she has children who are foreign nationals. She continued as State Counsellor, the de facto leader, till January 2021. In February 2021, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and other military leaders staged a coup.

Burman hegemony: the root problem

Pum Za Mang et al (2022) argued that the consecutive governments of postcolonial Burma, monopolized by the Burman, escalated the age-old troubled race relations as they refused to accommodate minorities. They also suggest that in the name of decolonisation, they started and have perpetuated Burmanization. Anyone who acted against the continuation of Burman hegemony has been removed from power.

Myanmar is one of the world’s most diverse countries, with a rich history and a wealth of cultural and religious traditions, and as many as 135 different ethnic groups. Ethnic Burmans, known as the Bamar, with nearly 68 per cent population have enjoyed a privileged position in society and have held a majority of government and military positions. The other ethnic groups are: Shan (9 per cent), Karen (7 per cent), Rakhine (4 per cent), Chinese (3 per cent), Mon (2 per cent), Indian (2 per cent), others (5 per cent).

Administratively, Myanmar is divided into seven states, seven regions and one union territory (Nay Pyi Taw). The states — Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine, and Shan — cover mainly the upland areas and are largely populated by national races/ethnic communities. The regions — Ayeyarwady, Bago, Magway, Mandalay, Sagaing, Tanintharyi, and Yangon — are situated mainly on the plains with a population of predominantly Bamar origin. While mainly Buddhist Burmans comprise around 70 per cent of Myanmar’s population, they dominate the military, which still controls the country, reports Asia Nikkei.

Failure of Panglong Conference

The root cause of political unrest in Myanmar is the Burmanisation of political, military and economic power at the cost of ethnic groups who live on the periphery. To address this imbalance, the Burmese nationalist hero, Aung San, reached an agreement in 1947 at Panglong township of Shan Province. The agreement was the outcome of the Panglong Conference, a meeting on the eve of independence between Aung San and representatives of several of the largest minority groups in Burma, namely the Chin, Shan, and Kachin. These groups agreed in principle to the formation of the Union of Burma, which became the first post-colonial government. However, other ethnic groups, most prominently the Karen and Rohingya, did not participate in this conference. After his assassination, this process of integration of the ethnic minority groups into the mainstream Burmese society was abandoned.

After a gap of nearly seven decades, the Union Peace Conference was revived by Suu Kyi in 2016. The first ‘21st Century Panglong Conference’ was held from August 31 to September 4, 2016. Eighteen ethnic insurgent groups attended the first session of the conference. Following this Conference, on October 15, 2016, the Burmese government announced their “Seven Steps Roadmap for National Reconciliation and Union Peace” (SSRNRUP). The 2nd and 3rd conferences of the 21st Century Panglong Conference (21CPC) were held in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

The 4th 21st Century Panglong Peace Conference was held on August 19, 2020, with the aim to unite all ethnic nationalities and build a democratic federal union through dialogue. This last peace conference before the military takeover concluded with the delegates signing the Union Accord Part III, comprising of three parts which were: framework on the implementation of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), implementation of step-by-step processes and phase-by-phase implementations of the SSRNRUP in the post-2020 scenario, and principle guidelines for the establishment of a democratic federal union.

Learning for India

The 1982 Burma Citizenship Law distinguishes between three categories of citizenship: citizenship, associate citizenship, and naturalized citizenship. A person is issued a colour-coded Citizenship Scrutiny Card consistent with his or her citizenship status — pink, blue, and green, respectively. Myanmar follows a complex citizenship law, in which nationality is based on membership of one of 135 ‘national races’ (excluding Rohingyas) that supposedly lived within the country’s boundaries before the British invaded.

It may be recalled that a prolonged student movement in Assam demanding to disenfranchise ‘foreigners’ led to the signing of the Assam Accord in 1985. One significant clause of the Accord was: “Foreigners who came to Assam on or after March 25, 1971, shall continue to be detected, deleted and practical steps shall be taken to expel such foreigners”. These provisions strikingly resemble the 1982 Citizenship Law of Ne Win!

To honour this provision of the Assam Accord, the National Register of Citizenship (NRC) and Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) of India have been introduced, resulting in thousands of ‘stateless people’ in Assam. The same exercise is being planned in other parts of India also. The inhuman condition of millions of ethnic, linguistic and religious minorities of Myanmar and Assam should act as loud wake up calls for the democratic citizens of India.

Similar to India, Myanmar is also a nation of immense diversity. Ironically, both the architects of independence of Burma and India were assassinated. In Myanmar, Burmanisation of the majority Bamar Buddhists community has marginalised the indigenous ethnic communities who now have taken arms against the state. Myanmar is on the verge of Balkanisation due to hegemony of Bamars on minorities. Balkanization of Myanmar will have major implications on Indian Border States like Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland. Indian politicians and policy makers may learn from the Bamar’s mistakes and evolve a more federal structure of democratic governance.

Views expressed are personal