Democracy in disarray?

The 12th National Assembly elections in Bangladesh are scheduled to be held on January 7, 2024 to directly elect 300 members of the Jatiyo Sangsad. After independence, the first national election was held in 1973. The state parliament — called Jatiyo Sangshad — has 350 members of which 300 members are directly elected through voting. They serve for a five-year term in single-seat constituencies. The remaining 50 memberships are reserved for the women who are selected by the ruling party or coalition. The 2018 general elections were held on December 30 2018 when the voter turnout was recorded at 80 per cent. Bangladesh Awami League, under the leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, won their 4th term in the polls. The party gained 302 seats while the Jatiya Party became the main opposition party with only 26 seats, reports Hindustan Times.

Out of the 44 parties registered in the Election Commission, only 27 parties, including Awami League, Jatiya Party and few independent candidates, are contesting in the elections. The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has boycotted the vote. The BNP had boycotted the 2014 election also but took part in the 2018 polls. However, the Trinomul BNP –an offshoot of the BNP — is contesting in 144 seats. With the main opposition boycotting Sunday’s election, the ruling party has been accused of fielding ‘dummies’ and threatening people to turn up on voting day, reports Aljazeera.

The Army was deployed in several districts on January 2. They are expected to assist the Election Commission and the local administration to ensure peace and discipline from January 3 to 10. In addition to the armed forces, members of the Coast Guard, Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) will also be on election duty, reports The Hindu.

In a recent interview, the BNP’s acting Chairman Tarique Rahman said, “The predetermined upcoming election is non-participatory not just for the political parties, but the voters as well.” The BNP says it does not have any confidence in Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina presiding over a free and fair election and demanded Hasina to step down to make way for a ‘caretaker government’ to organise the vote.

According to political analysts, with the main opposition parties boycotting the poll and many of their leaders jailed, the ruling Awami League is all set to be re-elected for a fourth straight parliamentary term. In office since 2009, after an earlier term from 1996 to 2001, Hasina is the world’s longest-serving female head of government and is credited with subduing both resurgent Islamists and an intrusive military, reports Time.

Election under a ‘neutral caretaker government’ — the bone of contention

The official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs of India commented on August 11, that the Constitution of Bangladesh “has a position” on the issue of having a caretaker government in the country. “We would hope that the elections are held peacefully as they are being scheduled,” he said in the weekly press briefing, dwelling upon the protest rally held by the main Opposition BNP on that day. This statement brought back the focus on the 15th Constitutional amendment of 2011 under which the section on the caretaker system in Bangladesh was abolished by the Awami League government — which is very close to Narendra Modi’s government. Surprisingly, the Indian acknowledgement of the Bangladesh Constitution’s position on caretaker government came on a day when the BNP took out a protest rally demanding resignation of the Sheikh Hasina government.

The concept of a ‘neutral caretaker government’ was introduced in Bangladesh by the Awami League under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina in the mid-1990s. In 1996, the BNP-led government passed the 13th Amendment to the constitution, allowing the formation of the neutral caretaker government (NCG). The amendment represented a “political settlement” as the then Awami League-led coalition of parties demanded such a system, and BNP, after much resistance, accepted it. It not only allowed a peaceful transfer of power, but also provided an equal opportunity to major political parties, wrote Badiul Alam Majumdar. It is alleged that the unilateral passage of the 15th Amendment in 2011, in a “majoritarian” manner, by the Awami League-led alliance weaponised the constitution, destroying the political settlement.

Experts have raised questions on the constitutionality of the 15th Amendment. The Fifth Amendment incorporated the referendum provision in the constitution of Bangladesh though the 1972 constitution did not have it. The 12th Amendment, passed in 1991, was based on a compromise between the Awami League and BNP and was affirmed by a referendum. But the 15th Amendment was neither legitimate nor constitutional, as no referendum was held before its passage, argue legal experts.

It may be recalled that Sheikh Mujibur Rahman led the Awami League during the independence struggle, and served as chief executive of Bangladesh from January 1972 until his assassination in August 1975. In 1974, Mujib declared a state of emergency and launched a Second Revolution in which, with the approval of parliament, he replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential one-party authoritarian system.

After fifteen turbulent years, a constitutional referendum was held in Bangladesh on 15 September 1991. Voters were asked, “Should or not the President assent to the Constitution (Twelfth Amendment) Bill, 1991 of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh?” The amendments would lead to the reintroduction of parliamentary government, with the President becoming the constitutional head of state, but the Prime Minister the executive head. It also abolished the position of vice-president and would see the President elected by Parliament. The result saw 83.6 per cent vote in favour, with a turnout of 35.2 per cent.

Bangladesh: from a ‘basket case’ to a ‘rising star’

Bangladesh, under Hasina, offers a contrasting picture. She is praised as a political phenomenon who has guided the rise of her nation of 170 million from rural jute producer into the Asia-Pacific’s fastest-expanding economy over the past decade.

The country has achieved credible economic success under her leadership since 2009. Now it is one of the fastest-growing economies in the region. Its per capita income has tripled in the last decade and has surpassed Pakistan and India. The World Bank estimates that more than 25 million people have been lifted out of poverty in the last twenty years.

On November 24, 2026, Bangladesh is scheduled to graduate out of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) group. From that day onwards, it will be treated as a developing country. In the newly published UNDP Regional Human Development Report for Asia and the Pacific, Bangladesh features as a key reference, illustrating how the region has made outstanding progress in economic growth, human development, and poverty reduction. On the human development index (HDI), Bangladesh’s achievement was outstanding. It moved from an HDI of 0.397 in 1990, the fourth lowest in the region, to a HDI of 0.661 in 2021. Compared to Bangladesh, HDI for India in 2021 was 0.633. Only China had greater improvements in the region over this period.

As for other social and economic indicators in Bangladesh, from 1990 to 2021, life expectancy at birth rose to 72 years from 56; expected years of schooling more than doubled from 5.8 to 12.4 years; the GNI per capita more than tripled from USD 1,554 to USD 5,472; and maternal mortality fell 70 per cent, from 595 to 173 per 100,000 live births.

Bangladesh’s global partners

In 2021, Bangladesh’s share in global exports was 0.22 per cent and the share in total global imports was 0.34 per cent. Bangladesh is the leading exporter in the global apparel market. Table 1 reveals, the USA, Germany, the UK, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan are the major export destinations of Bangladesh. It exports mostly to the USA and European nations. Contrary to this, Bangladesh imports (refer to table 2) primarily from the Asian countries. China and India are the two major sourcing countries of Bangladesh.

Table 3 mentions 10 mega projects Bangladesh has currently undertaken. The list reveals that China and Japan dominate the infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. The first nuclear power project is being implemented with Russian assistance where an Indian company is involved as a junior partner to a local Bangladeshi company.

Geostrategic importance of Bangladesh polls

It is reported that Bangladesh is in talks with the 15-member RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Programme) bloc and is likely to take a call about joining it after the elections on January 7. This news has cautioned India and it is now reassessing its plan to ink a trade pact (FTA) with Bangladesh. If Bangladesh joins RCEP, which India had pulled out in 2019 after negotiating for seven years, it will be a major blow to Indo-Bangladesh relations, reports Economic Times. Sri Lanka has also expressed its desire to join RCEP.

Meanwhile, Japan — another strategic partner of Bangladesh — is also gearing up to strengthen its ties with Bangladesh. Last month, the Japanese government published the Joint Study Group (JSG) report on the possibility of an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Japan and the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. The Joint Study Group recommends that the Government of Japan and the Government of Bangladesh launch a negotiation for an EPA between the two countries.

It appears that in this geo-strategic game, India is increasingly getting marginalised by China and Japan.

Observations

Nearly 2 billion people across Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka will cast their vote from January 7 through September 2024. Bangladesh election, boycotted by the main opposition parties, is all set to re-elect Ms Hasina for the fifth time. Though Bangladesh has made remarkable economic progress during her regime, the country has also incurred the huge cost of sacrificing basic democratic rights of a large section of citizens who have decided to boycott the election process.

In Pakistan, the former Prime Minister is languishing in jail under the watchful eyes of the military commanders, and Sri Lanka, where hungry citizens stormed the Presidential palace a few months earlier, is trying its best for an economic recovery. India — the mother of all democracies — is witnessing religiously divisive politics from the ruling party to retain its power. Over the last decade, hatred — both racial and religious — has been dominating the political discourse of the ruling party in India. Elected Parliamentarians, belonging to opposition parties, get suspended and routinely hounded up in India. Like in Bangladesh, opposition parties in India are also under attack. Hundreds of human rights activists are jailed under draconian laws.

In all these four former British colonies, which are at different stages of capitalist development, demands for the basic democratic and human rights are being slaughtered, on a regular basis. The dying cries are suppressed under the trumpet of economic growth — real or fake.

In this context, it is important to ponder upon what Wolfgang Markel (2014) had observed over a decade ago when he said, capitalism and democracy follow different logics, but under certain conditions, they can engage with each other. Then, a space of possibility emerges where they can coexist. According to him, capitalism thrives on unequal property relations, democracy on equal citizenship rights and the goal of realising the common good. So, capitalism per se is not democratic and democracy per se is not capitalistic. “Democracy and capitalism are forcibly married”.

In oligarchic capitalism, politics leaves selected oligarchs a certain space in which they can operate freely. Democratic situations of Bangladesh and India are cases in point which strengthen Markel’s thesis.

Views expressed are personal