Missing conviviality?

With greater warmth from the Indian government and involvement of West Bengal and Northeastern states, Indo-Bangladesh relations can be leveraged to ensure growth of the long-secluded NE region

Update: 2022-09-10 20:51 GMT

HE Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, paid a State visit to India during September 05-08 at the invitation of Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi. Seven MoUs and agreements were signed and exchanged during the visit. One week prior to her visit, India and Bangladesh had discussed a wide range of issues related to major common rivers such as the Ganga, Teesta and several smaller rivers during the 38th meeting of the Joint River Commission (JRC) held in Delhi after a gap of 12 years. Incidentally, during her visit, UNDP has published the Human Development Report 2021-22 which ranked Bangladesh (129) ahead of India (132) in Human Development Index (HDI). Bangladesh has maintained its lead over India for the last three years.

Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's programme included, among others, launching of 'Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Student Scholarship' for 200 descendants of Indian Armed Forces personnel martyred and critically injured during the Liberation War of Bangladesh in 1971. She also addressed a business event, jointly organised by Indian and Bangladesh business communities on September 7, 2022.

It is claimed that India has nudged Bangladesh to implement a three-year-old agreement that allows it to set up a network of surveillance radars along the coastline of the neighbouring country. In addition to this, the launch of negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and a water-sharing agreement for the Kushiyara river are the concrete takeaways from the recently concluded Summit. Nevertheless, this visit of Sheikh Hasina, unlike the previous one, faced a few hiccups which indicated a lack of warmth from the host.

It may be recalled that prior to Sheikh Hasina's visit, Bangladesh's Foreign Minister Abul Kalam Abdul Momen visited India during June 18-20. Momen came for the seventh round of the India-Bangladesh Joint Consultative Commission (JCC) meeting with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar who announced after the talks that the two countries were advancing their ties to new domains like Artificial Intelligence, cyber security, start-ups and FinTech. Ten days before Momen's visit, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited India during June 8-10. While New Delhi had fixed Amir-Abdollahian's appointment with the Big Three – Modi, Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Memon had to be content with his counterpart and Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu. It is believed that meeting Modi and a photo-op has now become a yardstick to judge the importance India attaches to the visiting dignitary's country. By that criterion, it is clear that currently, Bangladesh figures at a lower rank in India's foreign policy priorities. This led to the speculation in the media that when Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visited New Delhi, she might not have been received as warmly as Nepal's PM Sher Bahadur Deuba during his last visit.

A few days before Prime Minister Hasina's visit to India, her Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen kicked up a political storm with his remarks made at an event in Chattogram. The minister, who visited India in June, said he had requested India to do anything that was required to keep the present government (of PM Sheikh Hasina) in power. The next day he clarified, saying "I said that we wanted Sheikh Hasina's stability to remain in place. We will be happy if you (India) help us in this regard." But the minister's remarks have drawn outrage among politicians and others who say he has tarnished the country's image. According to officials, Bangladesh Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen did not travel to India with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina due to "sickness," despite allegations claiming that he was abruptly removed from the entourage list because of unjustified remarks he had made recently.

In addition to this, Assam Chief Minister's comment, during the official visit of Bangladesh's Prime Minister, that 'Congress should try to integrate Pakistan and Bangladesh with India', was uncalled for and an insult to Bangladesh — a sovereign state. Moreover, the non-involvement of West Bengal's Chief Minister at any level of discussion indicated the Modi government's reluctance to address major unresolved issues like sharing of Teesta and Ganga water.

Agreements signed

India-Bangladesh Joint Statement dated September 7, 2022, says, the following MoUs and Agreements were signed and exchanged during the visit:

a) MoU between the Ministry of Jal Shakti, Government of India and Ministry of Water Resources, Government of Bangladesh on Withdrawal of Water by India and Bangladesh from Common Border River Kushiyara – a small river which flows from South Assam (of Barak River) to Sylhet region of Bangladesh; b) MoU between the Ministry of Railways (Railway Board), Government of India and the Ministry of Railways, Government of Bangladesh on Training of Bangladesh Railway Personnel in India;

c) MoU between the Ministry of Railways (Railway Board), Government of India and the Ministry of Railways, Government of Bangladesh on Collaboration in IT systems such as FOIS and other IT Applications for Bangladesh Railway; d) MoU on Scientific and Technological Cooperation between Council for Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), India and Bangladesh Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (BCSIR), Bangladesh; e) MoU on Cooperation in the Areas of Space Technology between Newspace India Limited and Bangladesh Satellite Company Limited; f) MoU between the Prasar Bharti and Bangladesh Television (BTV) on Cooperation in Broadcasting; and g) MoU between the National Judicial Academy, India and the Supreme Court of Bangladesh on Training and Capacity Building Programme for Bangladesh Judicial Officers in India.

In addition to these MoUs the following were unveiled/announced/released during the visit:

a) Unveiling of Unit-I of Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant, Rampal, Bangladesh; b) Inauguration of Rupsha railway bridge; c) Announcement of signing of project management consultancy contracts for Khulna-Darshana railway line and Parbatipur-Kaunia railway line; d) presentation of the book containing the translation of the historic '7th March Speech' of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 23 Indian and five languages of other South Asian countries, by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to Prime Minister Narendra Modi; e) announcement regarding the offer of 20 broad gauge locomotives to Bangladesh Railway on a grant basis; and f) announcement regarding supply of road construction equipment and machinery to Road and Highways Department, Government of Bangladesh.

The above list of MoUs shows that no significant agreement, like sharing of Teesta water, was signed during her visit. Analysts are of the opinion that from this visit Bangladesh Prime Minister has returned back almost empty-handed which might compel Bangladesh to move closer to China. Moreover, it may be recalled that India witnessed a surge in insurgency in the northeast during the rule of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) from 2001 to 2005. A new policy to befriend the BNP backfired. Bangladesh allegedly sheltered insurgents engaged in anti-India activities, and nearly all the Home Ministry-level talks ended without agreement, and India had to increase the security budget for the northeast. A couple of years after assuming office in 2008, the Awami League targeted insurgent camps and handed over the rebels to India. As India's security establishment heaved a sigh of relief, the relationship improved on multiple fronts. This failed trip of Sheikh Hasina will definitely boost the morale of her opponents. Many in Bangladesh will ask why Teesta has not been done.

Teesta — a contentious issue

In the 2017 general elections, Awami League had to face the same question on the Teesta water sharing issue. As the opposition political parties failed to exploit the sentiments of the common people, Awami League won the election. Sheikh Hasina probably anticipated that sharing the waters of the Teesta River, which originates in the Himalayas and flows through Sikkim and West Bengal to merge with the Brahmaputra in Assam and (Jamuna in Bangladesh), is perhaps the most contentious issue between two friendly neighbours. The river covers nearly the entire floodplains of Sikkim, governing the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. For West Bengal, Teesta is equally important, considered the lifeline of half-a-dozen districts in North Bengal. Though Bangladesh has sought an "equitable" distribution of Teesta waters from India, on the lines of the Ganga Water Treaty of 1996, it is difficult to achieve.

After failing to sign a water-sharing agreement with India over the last many years, Bangladesh has already approached China to transform this major river. It is reported that Bangladesh has received support from China for a USD 1 billion engineering scheme on the Teesta. The Bangladesh government is considering a proposal from The Bangladesh Water Development Board; and Power Construction Corporation of China (Power China), a state-owned enterprise, signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding for this project on 28 September 2016. Since then, Power China has submitted a master plan and a feasibility study for the project.

The plan is to build over 100 km of embankments along both sides of the river, from upstream of the Teesta barrage near the border with India to the confluence with the Brahmaputra. In July 2020, the Ministry of Water Resources sought a USD 983 million loan from China to implement the 'Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration project'. The Bangladesh government will bear 15 per cent of total project cost (about USD 130 million) and the rest will come from a Chinese loan.

Under the Teesta Project, massive drainage work will be done along the 115 miles of Teesta runs inside the Bangladesh border to deepen the depth of the mid-river bed. A 115-kilometre four-lane road will be constructed along both banks of the river. A big reservoir will be constructed to conserve huge surplus water that flows through the river every monsoon to ensure water supply for irrigation during the dry season. The major features of the megaproject are: 108-kilometre river dredging, 173 km river embankments on both sides, construction of satellite cities on both banks, and preservation of assets worth BDT 1,130 billion. Financial Express reported that in a recent meeting held between Bangladesh and China, the Chinese side informed the Bangladesh side that the project was being considered by them as a priority project.

Importance of China to Bangladesh

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)-related activities in Bangladesh began immediately after Chinese president Xi Jinping's visit in October 2016 when several investment agreements were signed between Bangladesh and China. During his visit, Bangladesh and China signed 27 deals and memorandum of understanding (MoUs) — totalling USD 13.6 billion. These spanned financing infrastructure, energy, information and communication projects. China considers Bangladesh as an important player in implementing its BRI. Xi's trip was a strategic move to ensure Dhaka did not slip away, given that Bangladesh's close ally, India, had already expressed her reservation for the China-led grand project.

From 2009 to 2019, China invested an estimated USD 9.75 billion in various transportation projects in Bangladesh. China is assisting Bangladesh to build a runway in Cox Bazar. The extended runway, the longest in Bangladesh, is to be built by a joint venture between the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and Changjiang Yichang Waterway Engineering Bureau. Under the agreement, the Chinese firm will extend the existing 9,000-foot (2,743-meter) runway by 1,700 feet (518 meters) through coastal land reclamation from the Bay of Bengal. Referring to Singapore, Bangkok and Dubai, Prime Minister Hasina said Cox's Bazar has the potential to be the next significant destination for the entire world as it is considered a suitable location for planes travelling from the East to West or the West to East. Moreover, it is reported that China is eyeing high-speed rail network projects in Bangladesh following Bangladesh Railway (BR) feasibility study for constructing the railway network between Dhaka and Chattogram. China has proposed carrying out the project under the government-to-government-Public Private Partnership (G2G-PPP) framework.

During the last 25 years, the exports of China to Bangladesh have increased at an annualised rate of 13.4 per cent, from USD 647 million in 1995 to USD 15 million in 2020. Compared to this, Bangladesh's export to China was negligible.

Significance of Indo-BD ties

Bangladesh is India's largest business partner in South Asia. In 2020, India exported USD 7.91 billion to Bangladesh and the latter exported USD 1.01 billion to India. But Bangladesh is important to India, especially to the Northeastern states, due to its geo-strategic importance.

The partition of Bengal and the subsequent emergence of an independent country in Bangladesh have practically isolated the north-eastern states from the rest of India. The division of Bengal had turned northeast into a land-locked region surrounded by five countries. The North-East Region (NER) of India is spread over an area of 2,62,185 sq. km, which is more than 8 per cent of the total geographical area of the country. The region has a long international border of 5,182 km, which is more than 99 per cent of its total geographical boundary.

The NE states share international borders with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal and China. The umbilical cord is the 'chicken neck' corridor at Siliguri (West Bengal). Bangladesh and India share a 4,096.70 km long border — both land and maritime. Indian states that share borders with Bangladesh are Assam, West Bengal, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Tripura. Four North-eastern states, namely Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Assam, share an 1,880 km border with Bangladesh. More than half of the long Indo-Bangladesh border is shared by West Bengal (2,216.70 km) alone.

India and Bangladesh have 54 transboundary rivers flowing between them, all of which are part of the drainage system of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin. In addition to these, the Sundarbans, a mangrove area in the delta, formed by the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers in the Bay of Bengal, spans from the Hooghly River in the Indian state of West Bengal to the Baleswar River in Bangladesh. The Sundarbans mangrove forest covers an area of about 10,000 sq. km, of which forests in Bangladesh's Khulna Division extends over 6,017 sq km, and in West Bengal, they extend over 4,260 sq. km across the South 24 Parganas and North 24 Parganas districts.

The partition of Bengal in 1947 has disrupted this shared ecosystem. Due to the lack of a proper market and adequate support from the Central Government and disruption of the shared ecosystem, the region could not utilise its huge economic potential for the benefit of its people. This gets reflected in the basic economic indicators like the share of Northeastern states' GSDP in the country's GDP. In 2017 the total GSDP of eight Northeastern states amounted only to 2.9 per cent of the national GDP. One of the reasons for the low GSDP of NE states is their inability to attract investment — both national and foreign.

The North East region vastly prospered when this huge area was part of the Bengal Presidency which included undivided Bengal and Burma (Myanmar). Partition of Bengal has not only disrupted the eastern economy by disconnecting its time-tested shared ecosystem, but it has also deprived north-eastern India of its direct access to the Bay of Bengal via river Brahmaputra and Meghna. After the construction of the Farakka Barrage on Ganga, in the early 1970s, the historical sea trade route of northern India from Allahabad to Bay of Bengal also got destroyed.

Conclusion

It appears India has decided to move away from South and South East Asia and focus more on West Asia to avoid any tension with China. This could be one of the reasons why India did not join the China-led RCEP and allied with the USA initiative of Indo-Pacific Economic Cooperation (IPEC). The US considers the geographic expanse of the Indo-Pacific stretching from its west coast to the western coast of India. This gels with India's 'Look West' policy. The land-locked Northeast states should also look to their West — Bangladesh. Better transit facilities between Bangladesh and NE states and people-to-people contact are the prerequisites to the latter's economic development. But for a long-term cordial relationship with Bangladesh, India's ruling party should change its attitude.

For any meaningful Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with Bangladesh, the Government of India must involve the CMs of Bengal and NE states. These are the states which have been suffering since 1947 due to the unilateral decision of a few leaders of North West India to divide Bengal without seeking consent from the affected citizens. The Union Government should follow the declared policy of 'cooperative federalism' in true spirit.

Views expressed are personal

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