Unsettling bonhomie

It's been more than a coincidence that Pakistan and Turkey have come to notice in the recent past trying to woo Bangladesh. Preceding this, there has been a flurry of diplomatic activities amongst these countries. First, Pakistan opened its diplomatic mission with a full-fledged High Commissioner in place in the capital Dhaka. Almost at the same time, Turkey at the beginning of last year, inaugurated its mission in Dhaka while Bangladesh too reciprocated. So, we see an extraordinary thaw beginning to emerge between the two countries.

There is, however, nothing bad for a 50-year-old independent and sovereign country like Bangladesh in the opening of new vistas establishing diplomatic relations with another Islamic country. Hasina after an uninterrupted rule for over 10 years, has been expanding her country's footprint in different countries and this aspect too looks alright. Turkey claims that Hasina had supported President Erdogan after he survived the military coup launched against him in 2016. This is, however, a fact closely contested. Erdogan is a shrewd and astute leader who's ambitious to carve a niche of his in the Islamic world. This was seen when he tried to subvert the OIC to clip the wings of the Saudi Monarchy. He is also known to be staying afloat in international politics to needle the EU, the US, Saudi Arabia and even India ostensibly to show its solidarity with Pakistan especially over the Kashmir issue. It's common knowledge that Erdogan had time and again offered to fight alongside Pakistani forces to 'liberate Kashmir'. His jingoism was also noticed in his support of Azerbaijan against Armenia.

Against these ongoing happenings, Turkey's Interior Minister, Süleyman Soylu paid a visit to Bangladesh on January 8 this year and held extensive discussions on a wide range of topics with his Bangladesh counterpart Asaduzaman Khan, the Foreign Minister, and even signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). Most significantly, both sides agreed to enhance security cooperation, Counter-Terrorism (CT), drug trafficking, intelligence sharing, training, and also ways to fight the menace of cyber-crime.

At the face of it, it looks a bit unprofessional and less convincing to know about the element of Intelligence sharing between the two countries. Discussing threadbare, why do the intelligence sharing as there is nothing common on the subject of intelligence sharing between the two countries! Turkey and Bangladesh are thousands of miles apart and what intelligence can Turkey provide to Bangladesh and on which area of activity? Similarly, what sort of intelligence can Bangladesh cater to Turkey? On the Kurds? On Syria? Saudi Arabia, UAE, EU? There doesn't seem to be any clarity on this too. Cooperation on CT can be understood as it's very general. The same holds good with the cooperation on subjects like cyber-crime, drug trafficking, training etc. but not on specific subjects like intelligence as they need specific focus. This perhaps calls for closer scrutiny by the security professionals.

Examining this aspect, it may appear possible that Turkey and Pakistan being close, Pakistan is using Turkey to find out from Bangladesh, by proxy, certain aspects of intelligence it can not otherwise access through its own mechanism or resources. It could appear far-fetched a thought but in these days of geopolitical games, anything is possible. The use of a third country in furtherance of its objectives is not altogether surprising. And that's what seems to be happening here.

Importantly, keeping in mind the growing security cooperation between Turkey and Bangladesh, it's also imperative to point out that Turkey has never been so sympathetic towards Bangladesh. It had, in fact, nurtured a kind of hate. Possibly because Bangladesh has always been close to India and Turkey, President Erdogan in particular, was always trying to drive a wedge between the two countries at the behest of Pakistan. When the Rohingyas first started arriving in Bangladesh from Myanmar in 2017, Turkey offered all help to the refugees more in the name of religious affinity than on humanitarian grounds. Experts then had also suspected that Erdogan was trying to push his Muslim Brotherhood (MB) agenda to radicalise the Muslim refugees perhaps to counter the threat of Wahhabism unleashed by the Saudi rulers. That was the game Erdogan played.

Interestingly, the visiting Turkish interior Minister, Süleyman Soylu also paid visits to the Rohingya camps and inaugurated a field hospital trying to win the sympathies of the Muslim refugees and the people of Bangladesh. The gesture appeared more unusual than it meets the eye. It is not as simple as made out to be.

It must also be remembered that Pakistan has been making extraordinary efforts to woo Bangladesh and there are vigorous efforts afoot to invite Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to visit Islamabad. It's possible that Hasina avoided accepting the overtures during the rejoicings of the 50th year of its independence or coinciding with Sheikh Mujib's centenary year but a political leader or a head of government can't avoid for long visiting a country or spurning its offer howsoever cruel it has been in committing war crimes or genocide in the liberation war of 1971. The world must move on. And, Hasina is no exception to this 'real politick'. Turkey may, in all likelihood, be playing a mediatory role in bringing Bangladesh closer to Pakistan. Who knows?

Here it's also pertinent to state that Turkey is trying to reach a target of USD 3 billion in its trade with Bangladesh. Currently, it's USD 1.2 billion. Not very long ago, it was only USD 850 million. These statistics show the growing bonhomie between the two countries bound only by a common religion. Turkey has also been trying to sell military hardware to Bangladesh to equip it with arms and sophisticated weaponry. Does Bangladesh need Turkey militarily or otherwise or is it falling into a trap by the duo of Turkey and Pakistan? Policymakers and security watchers of the region must have a closer look.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to the PM of Mauritius. Views expressed are personal