Shifting sands

Political developments in Pakistan are progressing at a rapid pace, overtaking and leaving behind a trail of uncertainty and suspense. In a significant political move, amidst Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) facing likely disintegration, Jahangir Khan Tareen (JKT), a former crucial member of the PTI, has launched the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP). He was joined by Abdul Aleem Khan, an erstwhile PTI member and a close confidant of Imran. More importantly, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, a former Minister of Foreign Affairs and once PTI's strongman and closest colleague of Imran Khan, has welcomed the formation of the new party.

It may be recapitulated that Tareen was considered a kingmaker in 2018 when he delivered independent candidates for the PTI after the election, enabling it to form a government in Punjab. However, due to subsequent differences with Imran Khan, Tareen became politically alienated for a while until the vote of no-confidence in April 2022, when he and his allies supported Hamza Shehbaz, the son of Shehbaz Sharif, in his bid for the Chief Minister's post in Punjab.

Last month, Tareen was presented with another opportunity when the dismantling of the PTI began after violent protests erupted following Imran Khan's arrest on May 9. Around a hundred PTI deserters joined the new party. Abdul Aleem Khan and Jahangir Khan Tareen were among the individuals who played a crucial role in shaping the PTI while it was still an emerging political outfit, serving as part of its vital support system. However, Imran Khan distanced himself from them after his government was formed in 2018.

The IPP presents itself as a new beginning in Pakistan's politics. Awn Chaudry, the additional secretary general and spokesperson of the IPP, recently revealed that the party opposes politics based on hatred and seeks to maintain close ties with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This indicates that the new party, after splitting from the PTI, has established a close relationship with the ruling PML-N. Meanwhile, analysts believe that the formation of the IPP aims to undermine the PTI's popularity, particularly in South Punjab and other rural areas. However, the party's chances of securing election victories appear remote, although it might benefit the PML-N in certain constituencies.

In the meantime, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has come under severe criticism for going out of the way in ensuring legislation and other measures to bring back his older brother and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan. Shehbaz's detractors have already voiced their concerns about his style of governance, alleging that he operates the country by proxy with Nawaz Sharif dictating orders and instructions from London.

Prominent media editorials have once again castigated dynastic politics in Pakistan, describing it as a reflection of a society that prioritizes "connections" over merit, where politics is driven by promises of patronage rather than the strength of policies. The prominent daily ‘Dawn’ asserts that PML-N's Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and Miftah Ismail are capable politicians in their own right, who could serve well as the Prime Minister and Finance Minister, respectively. Unfortunately, both of these politicians have been marginalized despite their potential.

In a separate development, the authorities, potentially including the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), have continued their efforts to engineer defections within the PTI, aiming to further weaken Imran Khan and his party as part of their strategy to dismantle the PTI and pave the way for elections, ostensibly in support of the current political dispensation. In an attempt to further pinprick Imran Khan, the authorities allegedly abducted Uzair Bhandari, a renowned legal expert and former Prime Minister's lawyer, on June 17, shortly after he left Imran's residence where he had been called for legal advice. He was released within a day due to widespread opposition to his "abduction" expressed on social media. Imran Khan swiftly responded by stating that the country was heading towards martial law, with the military taking complete control, and that Uzair's "abduction" was a precursor to such a scenario.

These developments show that Pakistan continues to be reeling under complete unpredictability. There are no signs of recovery whatsoever. The Foreign Office (FO) is watching with apprehension and frustration the growing camaraderie between India and the United States, particularly in light of Prime Minister Modi's visit to the US, which attracted extraordinary interest and overt display of support from President Joe Biden and his State Department officials. Simultaneously, Pakistan is also watching with unusual interest the United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China, apparently bringing some positivity and thaw in the Sino-US relations. Given these rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics, Pakistan finds itself in a state of confusion, with its Foreign Office mandarins grappling to determine the country's position in the current scenario.

Judging by these developments occurring in Pakistan’s internal and external fronts, it would clearly seem that the country is at the crossroads, needing to steady its course before it strays into rough weather.

The writer is an IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, security analyst and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal