Recalibrating Relations

A common goal of diplomacy is to build better relationships with other nations, even those with adversarial approaches. This is even more important if those nations are your neighbours. Historically, all global powers rose as regional powers before becoming global powers. Turning adversaries into allies can be a significant outcome of successful diplomacy, but it is easier said than done. A carefully planned approach is needed which must comprise several strategies such as utilising dialogue and negotiation to de-escalate tensions, building relationships and establishing agreements on various issues like trade, climate change, or security, and creating a framework to interact and manage relations in a mutually beneficial manner.

India's neighbourhood is often described as hostile due to a complex interplay of historical factors, geopolitical rivalries, and ongoing disputes. The relationship with Pakistan is particularly fraught with historical baggage, including the Kashmir conflict, cross-border terrorism, and nuclear weapons competition. India and China share a long border with disputed areas, and there is ongoing competition for influence in the region, including infrastructure development and military presence. The relationship between Bangladesh and India has experienced a period of worsening following the removal of Sheikh Hasina's government and the establishment of the Muhammad Yunus-led interim administration. Nepal is strategically important for India, but it has concerns about India's influence and potential interference in its internal affairs. The island nations Sri Lanka and The Maldives are also within India's sphere of influence, but India faces competition from other powers, particularly China, for influence in these countries.

Despite the challenges, India has been actively pursuing a "Neighbourhood First" policy, aiming to enhance cooperation and development assistance to its neighbours. This policy involves initiatives like infrastructure development, trade and investment, and capacity building, with the goals of fostering closer ties and promoting regional stability. However, the success of this policy is contingent on addressing the underlying issues and building trust with its neighbours. Against this background, Prime Minister Modi's visit to the Maldives must be seen as a very important diplomatic step. Maldives holds a significant position among India's vital maritime neighbours. India has actively engaged in various efforts aimed at bolstering the defence and security infrastructure in the Maldives through capacity development and capability enhancement. India has also steadfastly provided financial aid and helped towards maintaining the security of the island nation.

Under President Mohamed Muizzu, India-Maldives relations have experienced a period of strain, largely due to his "India Out" campaign. Muizzu campaigned for the presidency on a platform advocating for the withdrawal of Indian military personnel from the Maldives. This rhetoric, aimed at bolstering Maldivian sovereignty and nationalism, created friction with India. Actions taken after assuming office further worsened relations. Muizzu's first act as President was to formally request the withdrawal of Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives. While India eventually replaced its military personnel with civilians, this initial demand signalled a shift from the previous administration's "India First" policy. Comments targeting Indian Prime Minister Modi also negatively impacted the relationship.

More recently, however, relations seem to be recalibrating. India has provided significant economic assistance to the Maldives, and Muizzu has toned down some of his anti-India rhetoric. He has visited India, and both leaders have pledged to open a new chapter in bilateral ties.

This culminated in Prime Minister Modi's recent visit to the Maldives on July 25-26 as the guest of honour at the Maldives' 60th Independence Day celebrations. PM Modi’s two-day trip was aimed at boosting India’s development partnership with the Maldives. This was his first visit to the island nation since President Muizzu took office. As PM Modi put it, "Peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indian Ocean region are our shared goals". He stressed that India will remain the “first responder” for the Maldives, and that it will "continue to support the Maldives in strengthening its defence capabilities".

PM Modi announced a USD 565m credit line, saying that “This will be used for projects linked to infrastructure development in line with the priorities of the Maldivian people.” The Maldives President said that the credit line from India would be used to strengthen the Maldives’ security forces, as well as improve healthcare, housing, and education. He added that “India’s continued assistance to the Maldives through the export of essential commodities is a key facet of our bilateral cooperation".

The reset in bilateral ties which is taking place was evident from President Muizzu's remarks at the banquet which he hosted for PM Modi. Muizzu said: "This year marks 60 years of diplomatic relations between the Maldives and India, a milestone that reflects not only our shared history but also the depth and resilience of our partnership. Yet, the bond between our people predates diplomatic formalities. For centuries, the Indian Ocean has been a witness to our shared journey”.

PM Modi reciprocated the warm sentiments expressed by the Maldives President. "India-Maldives relations are centuries-old. We are neighbours, partners and true friends who stand together in times of need. Like I said earlier too, Maldives holds a special place in India's 'Neighbourhood First' policy...This is not just diplomacy but a relation of deep affinity," PM Modi said.

The Maldivian government, under President Muizzu, still maintains a close relationship with China. Relations between China and the Maldives are experiencing a period of strengthened ties and elevated cooperation. The Maldives has emphasized that its friendship with China should not be influenced by any third party and that it will safeguard regional peace and development. However, China's loans for infrastructure projects have raised concerns about the Maldives' debt burden, as China is its largest external creditor.

Summing up, Prime Minister Modi's visit to the Maldives on its 60th Independence Day as Guest of Honour marks a significant step towards improved relations. Following a period of strained relations, there are signs that the Maldives is moving towards a more cooperative stance towards India. While President Muizzu's initial policy sought to distance the Maldives from India, recent interactions suggest a shift towards repairing and strengthening ties. The shift towards pragmatic diplomacy suggests that the Maldives is recognising the strategic importance of both India and China as regional powers, and is now seeking to balance its relationships with both.

The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Consul General in New York. Views expressed are personal