Paying the piper?

Pakistan’s political uncertainty and economic hardships seem to have brought terrorism back to life in the country — a Frankenstein Monster that is a regional threat, but the policymakers in Islamabad simply refuse to see real internal reasons responsible for its resurrection and maintain an ostrich-like attitude. The establishment continues to blame ‘others’ for its own failures instead of undergoing any introspection.

Pakistan has announced that all foreign nationals living illegally in the country, including millions of Afghans, should leave the country by November 1. The government has not named any country but, prima facie, the move appears to be aimed at the Afghan refugees.

It may be reiterated that Pakistan has conducted similar operations in the past, albeit with limited success. During a 2016 campaign, more than 6,00,000 Afghan immigrants, both registered and undocumented, returned to their country, according to data compiled by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). According to the latest United Nations figures, around 1 million Afghans are registered as refugees in Pakistan while 8,80,000 more have been given legal status to remain in the country.

Meanwhile, the caretaker government in Pakistan has said that a further 1.73 million Afghans have been living in Pakistan without any legal status. The Afghans started to migrate to Pakistan due to political instability and conflict triggered by the Soviet intervention in 1979. This process has continued since then as Afghanistan has never seen stability in the last four decades. Nearly 6,00,000 Afghans have arrived in Pakistan since the Taliban seized power in Kabul in 2021.

The UN and several global human rights groups, including the Amnesty International, have opposed Pakistan’s eviction plan, saying it will put a number of Afghans at risk, particularly the minority Hazara community that fled because of perceived persecution by the Taliban.

Pakistan, widely known for its ‘Jihad Culture’, has found a reason to blame the Afghan refugees for its internal security challenges. Pakistan’s caretaker Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti was even quick to assert that Afghan nationals had carried out 14 out of 24 suicide bombings in Pakistan this year.

However, on his part, Abdul Mutalib Haqqani, spokesman for the Afghan Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation, quickly denied these unsubstantiated claims, saying, “We deny all these claims because Afghans have migrated to other countries for their safety, their security. It’s natural when someone migrates to another country for his safety, he would never want insecurity there,” said Haqqani.

Pakistan has further alleged that armed groups use Afghan soil to train fighters and plan attacks inside Pakistan. The Taliban naturally has denied all such accusations, saying Pakistan’s security problems are home-grown. In an act of desperation, Bugti also announced a web portal and a national helpline where anyone can report “illegal immigrants” in exchange for a reward.

In September, there was an alarming rise in the rounding up of Afghans by the Pakistan authorities in the backdrop of renewed tensions between Islamabad and Kabul, following an attack by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in Chitral. The Afghan embassy in Pakistan said that more than 1,000 Afghans were detained in the past two weeks — half of them despite having a legal right to be in Pakistan.

A recent report released by the Islamabad-based Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) reveals a staggering 57 per cent escalation in militant violence nationwide over the last quarter. The report notes that the number of fatalities from terrorist attacks this year has increased, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan having suffered 92 per cent of all fatalities since the beginning of the year.

In the meantime, the socio-economic indicators in both these provinces are not very good, and Pakistan’s overall economic situation may be aggravating the conditions in these two provinces, as it is easy to sway unemployed youth towards terrorism. However, it may be easy and convenient to blame the Afghan refugees, as 50 per cent of the total Afghan refugees in Pakistan are in KP province and 24 per cent in Balochistan.

Having said this, it is conceivable that Pakistan could be contemplating about getting some Western assistance to deal with the economic expenses of the Afghan refugee situation. The West seems to have forgotten Afghanistan after its hasty withdrawal in August 2021 and, instead, they have been keeping their eyes on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Apart from seeing the Afghan refugees as a national security threat, Pakistani experts also see them as an economic and political threat. Some contend that the prolonged stay of refugees not only creates a burden on the economy but will make them able to contend for political power, especially in the areas where Afghan refugees are in majority.

This ‘refugee vs national security’ debate in Pakistan misses the mark completely as the real threat to Islamabad’s security comes from the ‘Ulema-State’ alliance that is responsible for widespread terrorism and violence in the country.

In his 2019 book, ‘Islam, Authoritarianism, and Underdevelopment – A Global and Historical Comparison’, Turkish author Ahmet Kuru has described Pakistan in a wider framework of authoritarianism, underdevelopment and the ongoing conflicts in Muslim countries around the world. Kuru further says that the countries with Muslim majority populations have higher levels of violence than other countries. He further argues that Muslim countries have lower Gross National Product (GNP) per capita, higher corruption and more common authoritarian leadership. No Muslim country produces a high level of technology, according to Kuru.

It is reckoned that the real reason for Pakistan's decline is the existence of Ulema-State alliance in Pakistan since the 1980s, according to Kuru. Afghan and Kashmir Jihad symbiotically linked military generals and clerics in Pakistan. This alliance has wreaked havoc for Pakistan society, as is evident today. Yet, it is foolhardy to think that the Afghan refugees are a security threat to Pakistan. The answer lies somewhere in the history of Pakistan and an honest resolve to reform could be needed to come back from the brink.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal