A Country at the Crossroads

There has never been a dull moment in the annals of Bangladesh, particularly after election dates are formally announced. This notwithstanding, political parties continue to bicker over the dates, citing student examinations and Eid-ul-Fitr in and around April next year. Although there was a one-on-one talk between Chief Advisor (CA) Muhammad Yunus and Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in London on the sidelines of the latter’s UK visit in the recent past, there still remain a lot of grey areas to be thrashed out between the government and the BNP. As has been written time and again, the BNP, in its own assessment, harbours the wishful thinking that it is going to sweep the polls. The National Citizen Party (NCP) and Jamaat are under the illusion that they too are very much alive and kicking, and a force to reckon with in the electoral contest. But in reality, they hardly stand a chance of making any dent in their opposition camps.

Also, the BNP’s political opponents are quite rattled by its stand seeking the participation of the Awami League (AL) in the poll fray, which they are acerbically protesting due to the alleged role of the AL in leading last year's anti-people agitation that forced Sheikh Hasina to quit and escape to India. This consistent BNP stand doesn’t seem palatable to Jamaat and the NCP. It is, therefore, important to see whether the BNP actually takes along the AL or if it is just a tactical manoeuvre.

Meanwhile, it seems the government has pressed into service political assessments written by academics to build public opinion ahead of the elections. In this regard, Ali Riaz, a distinguished professor of political science at Illinois State University, US, and head of the Constitution Reform Commission as well as Vice-Chair of the National Consensus Commission in Bangladesh, said in a write-up that the July 2024 uprising came after at least a decade of efforts by various political parties to mount a democratic movement. While these efforts paved the way, it was a spontaneous movement of students that mobilized the people. The uprising took place contrary to the global trend. Since 2006, the world has been witnessing serious democratic backsliding. In recent years, democratic reversal has taken a new dimension and autocratisation has intensified.

According to the Sweden-based research organization Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute, Bangladesh is amid the third wave of autocratisation — that is, not only are democratic countries regressing, but autocratic countries are also becoming more autocratic. The people of Bangladesh have been able to swim against the tide and unseat a deeply entrenched “autocratic” regime, despite facing unprecedented levels of atrocities. In 2025, as Bangladesh is in the midst of a transition process, there are many challenges that are not exclusively those of the interim government but of the entire political class.

In a completely separate development, as the election tempo steadily picks up, Malaysian police recently arrested 36 Bangladeshi citizens who were found to be directly involved in a “radical militant movement” centred on extremist beliefs and terrorist ideology, Home Minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution disclosed. He further said the police’s planned security operations had begun in April itself, with three phases of arrests in Selangor and Johor in Malaysia.

As for those who were arrested, 15 have been issued orders for deportation, and the remaining 16 are under further investigation for their involvement in this militant movement. It was further revealed by the Malaysian authorities that the Special Branch team’s intelligence and coordinated action indicated that this group had brought extremist beliefs based on the Islamic State (IS) ideology into the country. This group is also known to have created recruitment cells within their community for the purposes of indoctrination into radical beliefs, collecting funds for terrorist activities, and attempting to topple the legitimate government in their country of origin. Malaysia stated that it would not become a place of shelter or a base for subversive elements from any foreign extremist movement, including those from Bangladesh. This development is definitely a serious one, which merits undivided attention from the Bangladesh security establishment.

Judging by these arrests, it would appear that Bangladesh is still a target of IS and other radical ideologies and is not yet rid of the terror threat. It may be recalled that on July 1, 2016, the last major terror assault struck Dhaka at the Holey Artisan Bakery, killing many. After the recent arrests in Malaysia, increased vigilance is a must in the already fragile security scenario in Bangladesh.

It would also appear that the Yunus-led administration is sweeping the terror plans of potential terrorists lurking under the carpet like an ostrich. The law and order situation in Bangladesh has already spun out of control. There may be many more dormant groups, like the one discovered in Malaysia, looking for an opportunity to strike. The counter-terrorism mechanism in Bangladesh appears far from being focused.

For argument’s sake, assuming the BNP comes to power, if the Yunus government leaves behind a heavy load of law and order issues, along with the emerging terror potential as a liability, it will be difficult to tackle or eliminate it. Hence, a tough anti-terror plan seems urgently needed—also in the interest of maintaining a terror-free ecosystem in the border states of India. One hopes Mohd Yunus and his partners are listening and acting swiftly for peace and tranquillity in this sensitive South Asian region.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal