The deep scars left by the COVID-19 pandemic are hard to heal. And now, another threat is reportedly looming on the horizon – Disease X. Identified by the World Health Organisation (WHO), Disease X represents an unknown, unpredictable, and potentially severe infectious disease that could unleash havoc on a global scale. As the WHO sounds the alarm bells once again, it is crucial that we reflect on the lessons learned from the past and appreciate the role of science in averting any unforeseen catastrophe.
Since 2015, the WHO has been diligently working on a comprehensive research strategy and preparedness plan, the WHO R&D Blueprint for Epidemics. Central to this initiative is the WHO pathogen ‘priority list’, which focuses on research efforts on diseases with epidemic or pandemic potential. Disease X made its way onto the WHO's priority list back in 2018, and the latest warning suggests it could result in a staggering 20 times more fatalities than COVID-19. This hypothetical disease serves as a stark reminder of the importance of preparedness and vigilance in the face of emerging infectious threats that may defy existing classification criteria. The concept underscores the critical need for research, surveillance, and international collaboration to enhance our ability to anticipate and combat unforeseen health threats.
Unfortunately, there are deniers who question the legitimacy of the WHO warnings. Some factions, particularly from the right-wing, have peddled conspiracy theories, suggesting that governments might exploit Disease X to impose policies such as vaccine and mask mandates or even create pandemics themselves. In response, the WHO rightly emphasises that the number of potential pathogens is vast, while resources for research and development are limited. Rather than dismissing these warnings outright, it is imperative that the world understands the rationale behind the WHO's proactive approach. In a world characterised by rapidly changing climate, increasing populations, and persistent loss of wild habitats, the complex interchange between the human and virus worlds has become a breeding ground for potential pandemics. Zoonotic spillover, the transmission of viruses from animals to humans, has emerged as a prominent factor behind the advent and spread of pathogens in human habitats. Examples of zoonotic viruses include the Ebola virus, SARS-CoV-2, and various influenza viruses. To mitigate the risk of zoonotic spillover, adopting a One Health approach is essential. This strategy recognises the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health, requiring collaborative efforts between human health, veterinary, and environmental professionals to monitor and address emerging infectious threats at the interface between humans and animals.
As the world stands at the crossroads of an uncertain future, it is evident that the risk of unforeseen epidemics and pandemics may increase manifold. It is heartening to see global health bodies consistently relying on scientific information to adopt a proactive stance, keeping the world in a perpetual state of alert. The lessons from COVID-19 should not be forgotten; instead, they should serve as a catalyst for international cooperation, research, and preparedness to confront the spectre of Disease X and any other unforeseen health threats that may arise in the future. In a world facing uncertainty, science remains the beacon of hope and the key to safeguarding global well-being.