Octet Maximus

“Someday, I hope that we will all

be patriots of our planet and

not just our respective nations.”

— Zoe Weil

It is a sad reality of life that progress and development often exact a high price. It is the price families pay by drifting apart, neighbours cough up by ignoring one another, and nations shell out by resorting to diplomatic weaponry, or toting guns and other military paraphernalia. Anything to put down a once-brother or sister. It is mirthless and ironical, especially in a world that is getting increasingly interconnected. A relationship analogy explains this... A single dot makes a point. Two points make a line. Three points make a trend.

Worldwide, the trend is visible and ominous. But for the purport of relevance, let us speak of India, the largest democracy and a fast-growing economy that is being subtly but systematically isolated by a consortium of distant (and not-so-distant) countries. This silent, unspoken and unmistakable coalition is bull-headed, building walls where once stood bridges that forded gurgling streams. The actions of the octet – eight nations are leading the way – raise a disturbing question. Why is India being kept at arm’s length, not just diplomatically, but culturally and psychologically too? The answer is perhaps buried in suspicion, selective memory and a growing discomfort with India’s assertive identity on the global stage. No one likes a trotter.

The Rift Runs Far And Wide

Historically, India’s foreign policy has been characterized by a commitment to non-alignment and peaceful coexistence. But over time, some nations have distanced themselves from this ideology, influenced by geopolitical and ideological shifts. For instance, in the 1970s, Uganda expelled its Indian minority under President Idi Amin, accusing them of “economic malpractices and disloyalty”, fracturing relations. In the 1990s, political instability and racial tensions in Fiji led to a diplomatic standoff with India, more so after military coups targeted the Indo-Fijian community.

Closer home, Nepal’s efforts to assert its new-found sovereignty led to a gradual distancing from India. Since the 1960s, Nepal has been taking steps to reduce dependence on India, including adopting its own currency and seeking a closeness with China. The Maldives, in turn, has exhibited shifts in its foreign policy orientation. The election of President Mohamed Muizzu in 2023 was showcased on an ‘India Out’ platform, marking a pivot in the nation’s stance towards India with the withdrawal of Indian military personnel and a sycophantic trot towards China.

Even in regions where India has traditionally enjoyed strong ties such as the Middle East, there have been signs of strain. Turkey and Colombia have distanced themselves, influenced by political and diplomatic considerations. These reflect a changing trend of India’s relationships on the global stage. While India continues to be a significant player in international affairs, the dynamics of its diplomatic ties are turning complex. The questions – what has sparked this trust deficit; and can India navigate these challenges to rebuild and strengthen its international relationships?

The Eight Leading The Charge

Let’s get to brass-tacks and talk of the eight nations that have broken and thrown away the shell of friendship and discarded all pretence, starting with some neighbours.

India has always had a love-hate relationship with China – love for cheap products and hate for its growth and global ambitions. But things took a turn for the nasty after the border skirmishes in June 2020 in Galwan Valley. The Ladakh region is strategic as it leads to Aksai Chin, a plateau claimed by India but controlled by China. After Galwan, public sentiment in the two nations turned acidic. This has led to visa applications being scrutinized, with most getting delayed or denied. This limited tourism and business, and increasingly reflects broader geopolitical regional dynamics.

Afghanistan has earned the epithet of being one of the world’s most dangerous nations, especially after the Taliban takeover in August 2021. The security situation remains precarious, with violence and humanitarian crisis posing concerns for locals and foreign nationals alike. The Taliban has also imposed entry restrictions on Indians, reportedly due to historical tensions and the fickle nature of Afghan politics. The presence of terrorist groups like ISIS further complicates the landscape. Net-net, these factors have put a crimp on social ties between the two nations, as also the people.

India’s ties with Iran have long been complex, fire and water, characterized by symbiotic interests, yet abounding with mutual distrust. Ironically, allegations of espionage and security concerns have seen Iran impose restrictions, rooted in geopolitical undercurrents involving India’s friendship with nations that Iran perceives as its rivals. It is paradoxical – nations that once created the ‘Silk Route’ network have today unsheathed daggers. In the good old days, the Silk Route touched Srinagar, Gilgit and the Karakorams, winding its way to Merv, Neyshabur and Rey. Those days are done.

Soliloquy 1: Making up the roll-call of eight nations are Iraq, Libya, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. While the first four have earned the economic and diplomatic right to find themselves on this wall, Malaysia is a surprise inclusion. Recent political and economic considerations are at the root, though Indians have generally been welcomed in Malaysia. The nation recently extended its visa exemption for Indians till December 2026, with caveats.

Soliloquy 2: At the heart of India’s heartache are Pakistan and Turkey, countries experts feel should top this list. For once, Pakistan is the indubitable winner, with Pahalgam and its aftermath being the latest manifestation of its deviousness. Enough has been written on this, as on Pulwama, Poonch, Kargil, Siachen and the Mumbai attacks – and these are just indicative. Pakistan’s use of terrorism as a foreign policy tool has destabilized South Asia, and despite its claims of combating extremism, its military and intelligence agencies have been implicated for orchestrating and supporting insurgency. Pakistan has often been exposed and made to pay economically, but it doesn’t seem to care. Naturally, Indians aren’t too keen to visit Pakistan (and vice versa). With its support for Pakistan in the post-Pahalgam military standoff, Turkey has been added to the list.

Separate Economic Listing Too

India is in the crosshairs not just in the nations named above, but also finds itself facing a fusillade from the economic and labour-market standpoint. A separate list of 10 nations has been invading the social media, sending India’s ‘videsh-dreamers’ to rethink their career plans and aspirations. These nations are quietly setting up immigration and earnings roadblocks, forcing Indians to lower the dollar-bars or give up on the overseas jamboree altogether. Facing job-dispirited protests of their own people, countries have embarked on ‘Hire-Locals’ and ‘Ban Employment Pass’ drives.

In these 10 nations, jobs in Finance, Health, Technology, Construction and Retail are becoming tough to find, given the near-impossible demand in the labour market. This is forcing Indians to reassess options, many choosing repatriation to India over job insecurity and a stilted global career. The United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, South Africa, Singapore, Malaysia, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia make up this second list. Anti-immigrant sentiment, exacerbated by political and employment challenges, limits on family reunification, and daunting visa renewal processes have put paid to more than a million dreams. And the figure is rising every day.

Soliloquy 3: Discerning and mathematically-profound readers would be eager to point out that the above list totals only to nine. Got you. The last (and the least, given today’s flavour) is the United States. In this nation of immigrants, fresh incumbents are finding it scary to desilt the path to job availability, long-term settlement, Green Card complications and the growing divide over a man called Donald Trump, with his oft-changing Trade Tariffs International Masterclass. Even India’s tough bravehearts cannot forget visions of compatriots being shunted home in shackles, chained to benches on military aircraft. It was almost as bad as being in the path of a bullet.

The writer is a veteran journalist and communications specialist. He can be reached on narayanrajeev2006@gmail.com. Views expressed are personal