At The Crossroads, Again!

Bangladesh has been struggling for nearly 20 months to steady its course, coinciding with Sheikh Hasina’s departure from the country’s political scene on August 5 last year. The deterioration in the law-and-order situation has been rampant, and it has further worsened when Inquilab Mancha leader Sharif Osman Hadi was shot at by miscreants on December 12 in the heart of Dhaka. Despite the best of treatment at a Singapore hospital, Hadi succumbed to his grievous injuries on December 18. From the day he was shot and the return of his dead body from Singapore, the country witnessed large-scale violence, which is sadly of monstrous proportions.

In an unprecedented development, the offices of the most widely read English newspaper, “Daily Star” and the Bangla newspaper “Prothom Alo” were wantonly vandalised, and the editor of the “New Age”, Nurul Kabir, was roughed up by the perpetrators. The media houses in Bangladesh are badly shaken by such horrifying assaults, sending a huge sense of insecurity among the media establishments. There has been condemnation of these attacks by the editors, yet their castigation of the criminals seems muted, perhaps to avoid another revengeful attack. The lawlessness that prevailed in the aftermath of Hadi’s murder shows a field day for the troublemakers as they went on the rampage unbridled. It was a free run for them.

Continuing their violent activities, the mob also raided the well-known cultural organisations “Chhayanaut” and “Udichi”, which are epicenters of Bengali culture, including music, theatre, and literature. An innocent Hindu man, Dipu Chandra Das, was lynched and brutally killed in Bhaluka, Mymensingh, and there was an organised march towards the Indian High Commission, Dhaka, and Indian Consulates in Chittagong and Sylhet, which were providentially saved from any damage. The Chittagong office of the Indian diplomatic mission has stopped issuing visas for the time being.

Now the question is: who are these evildoers who have indulged in these strings of unchecked violence? Did they enjoy state support in terms of a “go-ahead”, necessary funding, etc.? Or is there some extraneous help coming from countries hostile to Indian interests? This is important to know as the murder of a youth leader who is thought to be largely responsible for the July–August 2024 uprising in Bangladesh could lead to such dangerous consequences that Bangladesh has seldom witnessed. Knowledgeable sources don’t rule out the complicity of anti-India elements, religious extremists, and a section of intolerants behind such attacks encompassing newspaper offices, minorities, Indian diplomatic offices, etc. Examining the unsavoury happenings closely, it would appear that the perpetrators of such violence are part of a blueprint which was executed with precision to:

* drive a further wedge between India and Bangladesh,

* incite communal violence by targeting a minority, and

* create and vitiate a combustible environment so that anarchy stays, especially when the general elections are less than two months away.

The interim government did not seem to have risen to the occasion to deal with this “out of control” law-and-order situation. The Chief Advisor, Muhammad Yunus, is believed to have come to power not only with the backing of a section of the US lobby but also from the student agitators who had staged the upheaval last year, forcing Sheikh Hasina to flee to India. This is possibly the reason that Yunus and his government are going out of their way to give Hadi the status of a martyr. This is demonstrated by getting him interred in a grave next to the legend Kazi Nazrul Islam. There is perhaps no denying the fact that Hadi was a popular youth leader, but independent Bangladesh watchers feel that, as Hadi was categorically anti-India throughout, he is being given so much significance to further fan anti-India feelings in an apparent bid to make Indo–Bangladesh relations more toxic.

India has always been accommodating in the interests of cordial relations with Bangladesh. It has carefully avoided being provoked and drawn into any controversy to further impair the ties. This notwithstanding, the Bangladesh Foreign Ministry summoned the Indian High Commission in Dhaka, calling for the return of Hadi’s killers (There is no evidence that the killer(s) of Hadi have gone to India as alleged). This clearly seems an overreaction and unnecessary provocation. Similarly, allowing agitated protestors to march up to the Indian High Commission in Dhaka and its office in Chittagong clearly hints that authorities remained indifferent to the protestors. We don’t see any restraint or appeal to the protestors by any section of the government or authorities’ dispensation calling for calm. This can safely lead to the assumption that perhaps the Bangladesh government is not keen to improve its relationship with India and is allowing things to go adrift. This looks brazenly like an immature approach.

The sharp deterioration in the law-and-order scene has seen criticism from many sections of society, including from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leadership, who have categorically blamed the government for the spate of violent attacks in the last week. There is so much anger amongst the general people that they have started demanding the resignation of the Home Advisor, Lieutenant General (Retd) Jahangir Alam Chowdhury. Incidentally, the Home Advisor recently committed a faux pas by his visible indiscretion, threatening the Superintendent of Police (SP), Narayanganj, with dismissal in case he did not arrest Awami League (AL) activists from his district, whether they are wanted in any case or not. Judging by these frivolous acts and failure to contain the sharply worsening law-and-order situation, the demand for the Home Advisor’s resignation seems justified.

In sum, Bangladesh continues to be at the crossroads, and things might complicate further when the BNP leader Tarique Rahman, who is arriving from London on December 25, returns. While his arrival may see a shot in the arm of a demoralised BNP, a violent showdown between the BNP and the Jamaat cadres remains a distinct possibility. The Army, which has always played a critical role in times of political crises in Bangladesh, may perhaps be contemplating intervening to rein in the lawbreakers to ensure peaceful or deferred elections in the larger interests. Also, Pakistan, which has been observing the developments keenly where attempts to distance Bangladesh from India as well as the re-emergence of Islamic hardliners are underway, may be on the anvil to further fuel the disturbances through its clandestine channels. This design is likely to ensure instability and turbulence, added to communal frenzy. India must be cautious to foil Pakistan and anti-India forces’ evil plans so that they don’t succeed.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius